Trump affordability remarks collide with Brent crude above $100

Trump affordability remarks at a July 22 rally in Marietta, Georgia, put the president’s cost-of-living message back under pressure as oil prices rose the next day. Fortune reported that Trump called “affordability” a term created by Democrats, while NBC News reported that Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel after renewed fighting in the Middle East.

The comments matter because Trump used the rally at Wheeler High School to argue that prices are improving, even as several measures cited by Fortune show many households still face high grocery, energy and housing costs.

What did Trump say about affordability?

According to Fortune, Trump told the crowd he first heard the word during his first press conference after taking office, when a reporter asked about egg prices. He said the term was “made up by the Democrats” and recalled saying at the time that he had been in office one day and would handle it.

Trump blamed former President Joe Biden and “radical left Democrats” for inflation, saying the United States had suffered the worst inflation in 48 years and citing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Fortune reported. Yale economist Stephen Roach has written that the 2022 inflation surge was the worst in about 40 years and has criticized Trump’s repeated version of that claim.

Inflation slowing means prices are rising at a lower rate. It does not mean prices have fallen back to where they were before unless there is deflation.

Why did oil prices rise after Trump’s remarks?

Trump told supporters that oil was going to come down and asked for more time, according to Fortune. He also described a failed effort to reach a deal with Iran, saying Iranian officials break agreements and then seek changes.

NBC News reported that Brent crude rose more than 6% in early Thursday trading to above $100 a barrel, its highest level since late May. U.S. crude also rose for a second straight day to nearly $92, NBC News reported.

Fortune reported that Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea forced at least five vessels to reroute around the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Trump described the conflict as a “skirmish” and said Iran wanted a deal, while also saying Iran was not ready to make one.

Egg prices, stocks and the cost squeeze

Trump pointed to egg prices as evidence his administration’s approach was working, Fortune reported. The outlet said independent data showed egg prices down nearly 28% from a year earlier, while economists attributed much of the decline to flock recovery after avian flu outbreaks rather than White House policy.

Fortune also reported that the Justice Department and 17 states reached settlements with three major egg producers over allegations of years-long price collusion. Cal-Maine, the only public company among the settling producers, agreed to pay $1.5 million and donate 30 million eggs without admitting wrongdoing, according to Fortune.

Trump also highlighted the stock market, saying it had reached 73 all-time highs since the election and that the typical American’s 401(k) was up $34,000, Fortune reported. J.P. Morgan Private Bank has found stock valuations near record highs while consumer confidence remains close to record lows, with strategist Jason Seydl pointing to affordability as the gap between markets and household sentiment, according to CNBC.

Housing costs remain another pressure point. CNBC reported that median-income families need about $50,000 more in annual income than in 2019 to afford a median-priced home, while the National Association of Home Builders said a typical family earning the national median income of $106,800 needs 32% of that income for a mortgage payment.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.