U.S. study maps wildfire risk to historic landmarks
Researchers found more than half of National Register sites have wildfire exposure, with 3,446 facing severe risk.
By Priya Raghavan · Science Reporter
3 min read
A new national assessment of wildfire risk to historic landmarks found that more than half of mappable sites on the National Register of Historic Places face some exposure to fire. Researchers at UC Santa Barbara’s National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis said the findings point to a preservation threat that can erase places tied to community memory and national history.
The study, published in Scientific Reports, examined 100,117 National Register locations and compared them with detailed wildfire burn-probability models. The researchers found 3,446 places in the severe-risk category.
The work follows recent losses at prominent historic sites. The Palisades Fire in Los Angeles in January 2025 destroyed the Will Rogers Ranch House, according to the University of California, Santa Barbara. Six months later, the Dragon Bravo wildfire burned through Grand Canyon National Park and destroyed the Grand Canyon Lodge, which was first built in 1927.
What historic landmarks face wildfire risk?
The researchers found the highest concentration of danger in the western United States, with additional areas of concern in Oklahoma, Arkansas and along the southeastern coast. California, New Mexico, Colorado and Oklahoma had especially concentrated numbers of at-risk sites, according to the study.
Buildings and historic districts make up 90% of the listed resources examined, the researchers said. Those categories can be especially vulnerable because their cultural value often depends on the original physical structure or setting.
The study also found that nationally significant sites have higher wildfire exposure than places listed for state or local significance. UC Santa Barbara said that means some of the country’s most important historic places are also among those facing greater fire danger.
Climate change is expected to widen wildfire hazard areas, according to the researchers, putting some places that once faced lower risk under greater pressure. The study frames cultural sites as part of wildfire planning, alongside homes, infrastructure and ecosystems.
How did researchers measure the threat?
The team matched every mappable National Register site with wildfire probability data, then sorted the results by location, type of place and level of cultural significance. The researchers also released an open-source dataset intended to help agencies compare risks across states and decide where to act first.
Caitlin Fong, corresponding author and a researcher at NCEAS, said historic places are tied to identity, memory and heritage and often cannot be replaced after a fire. Benjamin Halpern, a co-author and professor at UC Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science, said the study identifies where communities are most likely to lose places that help shape their sense of place.
The researchers said heritage protection is not yet a standard part of many wildfire planning systems. California’s CAL FIRE Cultural Resources Management Program is cited by UC Santa Barbara as one of the few dedicated examples; elsewhere, historic sites are more likely to be addressed through broader hazard-planning processes.
The study lists several steps that can fit preservation standards, including managing vegetation near historic places, adding fire-resistant materials where appropriate and installing hidden fire-suppression systems. Lead author Mona Farnisa said identifying the most exposed places gives agencies a basis for planning before fire causes permanent losses.
This story draws on original reporting from Phys.org.