US manufacturers face potential 1.9 million-worker shortfall
A Deloitte and Manufacturing Institute study says the sector must fill 3.8 million jobs over the next decade, with half at risk of going vacant.
By Maya Lindqvist · Senior Technology Correspondent
3 min read
U.S. manufacturers could struggle to fill millions of jobs over the next decade, a gap industry leaders say could slow construction, infrastructure work and domestic production. Mark Rayfield, president and CEO of Saint-Gobain North America and CertainTeed, said the problem is tied less to worker ability than to outdated views of factory careers.
In a Fortune commentary published July 1, Rayfield cited a Deloitte and Manufacturing Institute study that projected the United States will need to fill 3.8 million manufacturing jobs over the next 10 years. The study said about half of those roles, roughly 1.9 million, could remain open.
Rayfield said the risk comes as the country is spending heavily to bring production back to the United States, rebuild infrastructure and support the energy transition. If companies cannot find enough skilled workers, he argued, the shortage could become a problem for U.S. competitiveness.
Perception gap
Rayfield said manufacturing still suffers from a public image shaped by old assumptions that the work is dirty, unsafe and offers limited career growth. He argued that the industry has changed, with robotics, artificial intelligence, advanced engineering and sustainability practices now playing larger roles on production floors.
He also pointed to pay as part of the case for manufacturing careers. Rayfield wrote that the average manufacturing salary in 2024 was $106,691 when benefits and tuition reimbursement were included.
According to Rayfield, the push toward four-year college degrees helped deepen the mismatch by steering many young people away from technical training. He said the shift is notable because many younger workers are now questioning the value of a traditional college path while overlooking manufacturing jobs that may not require one.
What Rayfield says should change
Rayfield called for schools, government and companies to act together rather than treating the shortage as a problem for employers alone. He said educators should match curricula to advanced manufacturing needs, policymakers should support vocational training and apprenticeships, and business leaders should build talent pipelines.
He said unfilled roles can have effects beyond factory staffing, including delayed infrastructure projects, higher construction costs and slower housing starts. Rayfield also argued that a shortage of skilled workers can hinder innovation because new products and building materials still require people who can produce and install them at scale.
Rayfield used Saint-Gobain North America as an example of a company investing in workers and operations. He wrote that the company has 18,000 employees and has made nearly $7 billion in recent North American investments.
Rayfield, who said he began in the industry as a sales representative three decades ago, described skilled trades as a foundation for long-term careers. He argued that even as automation and advanced technology expand, manufacturers will need people with practical skills to make products reliably and at scale.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.