Trump tariff plan would raise $950 billion but miss debt goal, CRFB says
CRFB estimates Trump’s latest tariffs would raise $950 billion by 2036, still well short of revenue once expected for debt reduction.
By Daniel Okafor · Business Editor
3 min read
President Donald Trump’s latest tariff plan would bring in about $950 billion by 2036, but it would still fall far short of the revenue once expected to help address the national debt, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The group said the new duties would replace less than 60% of the money projected under tariff authority the Supreme Court rejected earlier this year.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, acting at Trump’s direction, announced tariffs on imports from 60 countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act. The USTR said the action targets countries accused of producing goods with forced labor.
The new duties range from 10% to 12.5%, according to the USTR announcement. Canada, Mexico and the United Kingdom are among the countries facing the lower rate, while goods from Japan, the European Union and Korea are capped at 12.5%.
The measures replace temporary tariffs adopted after the Supreme Court ruled in February that Trump could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose duties on trading partners. The administration was ordered to refund revenue collected under that approach, estimated at about $175 billion.
Will Trump’s tariffs pay down the national debt?
The White House has said tariff revenue could help reduce the budget deficit and may contribute to paying down the roughly $39 trillion national debt. CRFB’s estimate says the latest plan produces significant revenue, but not enough to match earlier budget expectations.
In a note shared with Fortune, CRFB said the new forced-labor tariffs, a 50% levy on Canada announced Monday and 25% tariffs on certain Brazilian goods announced last week would together generate $950 billion through 2036.
CRFB said the countries covered account for most U.S. imports by dollar value. The committee also said the rates are far lower than the reciprocal tariffs Trump announced on April 2, 2025, a date the administration called “Liberation Day.”
The committee estimated that the Supreme Court’s February ruling will reduce expected tariff revenue by $1.7 trillion over the next decade. It also said changes to steel, aluminum and copper tariffs created another $100 billion gap compared with early plans in Trump’s second administration.
Overall, CRFB said tariff actions since January 2025 are expected to raise about $825 billion less through fiscal 2036 than the Congressional Budget Office assumed in its February 2026 baseline. The group said that would push debt to 122% of gross domestic product by 2036, compared with 120% under the CBO baseline.
Why the new tariffs may last longer
Trump’s tariff program has faced repeated legal and policy setbacks. Some duties were struck down, temporary measures adopted in February later faced a U.S. Court of International Trade ruling in May that found them illegal, and that case remains pending on appeal, according to the Fortune report.
CRFB said the latest tariffs may have more staying power. The forced-labor tariffs can remain in place until the government determines they are no longer needed to address unfair trade practices, and the Canada tariffs can be kept indefinitely, the committee said.
The measures could still face legal challenges. Trump has linked tariff revenue directly to debt reduction, saying last summer that the purpose of his approach was primarily to pay down debt.
CRFB said the administration would need additional steps to fully replace the revenue lost after the Supreme Court ruling. The group said that could mean more tariffs, other tax increases, spending cuts or a mix of those options.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.