Polymarket Institute will fund research on prediction markets
Polymarket says its new institute will fund fellows studying prediction markets, with rules meant to protect independent publication.
By Sofia Marchetti · World Affairs Correspondent
3 min read
Polymarket announced the Polymarket Institute on Wednesday, creating an in-house research body to support academic work on prediction markets. The move matters because platforms that let users wager on future events are becoming a more visible source of public forecasts on politics, finance and sports.
The institute will be funded by Polymarket and will operate as a branch of the company, according to the announcement. Polymarket did not disclose how much it plans to invest in the effort.
Kai Brusch, Polymarket’s head of data, will serve as managing director. Brian Jabarian, an assistant professor in economics and technology at Carnegie Mellon University, will be scientific director and will not receive personal compensation for the role, a step the company said is intended to avoid conflicts of interest.
What is the Polymarket Institute?
The Polymarket Institute is a research initiative focused on how prediction markets gather information, produce forecasts and operate at larger scale. Prediction markets allow users to bet on specific outcomes, and their prices or odds are often treated as signals about what participants believe is likely to happen.
Brusch said the goal is to build a link between industry and academia so researchers have time and support to study the technology’s implications. The institute is also meant to provide data access and research infrastructure for work on market design, forecasting and related fields.
The launch comes as Polymarket and Kalshi draw attention for contracts tied to events including sports, interest rate decisions and elections. Their odds have started to appear alongside more traditional indicators such as polls and survey-based models.
Token Terminal, a blockchain data provider, reported that Polymarket’s global decentralized finance platform averaged 586,000 monthly active users in July. The Wall Street Journal and Yahoo Finance have partnered with Polymarket to include its odds in coverage, according to the company.
How will the fellowship work?
The institute will back doctoral researchers through the Polymarket Science Fellowship, a one-year program for work in areas such as information economics, market design, forecasting and prediction markets. The first group will include 12 fellows, each receiving a one-time grant of $10,000.
Formal applications are scheduled to open Aug. 18 through a dedicated website. Workshops will be held in New York, but fellows may take part remotely or in person, according to Polymarket.
Selected fellows will use expanded access to Polymarket data to study how markets combine information, handle risk and connect with artificial intelligence, public policy and crypto. The program is structured as academic support rather than a company research contract.
How does Polymarket say it will protect independent research?
Researchers involved with the institute must sign legal agreements barring them from trading on Polymarket or similar platforms while participating, according to the announcement. They must also publish their work with GitHub repositories containing their code and methods so other researchers can review the results.
Fellows will retain the right to publish in any journal, including work that is critical of Polymarket. Jabarian said the money will flow through a university gift model, which he said prevents Polymarket from having editorial control over research findings.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.