Miami’s wealth boom leaves middle-class buyers priced out, experts say

Miami’s draw for wealthy movers is widening the gap between who wants to buy in South Florida and who can afford to do it. Fortune reported that real estate experts see the city’s affordability crunch as a product of heavy demand, limited housing supply and a market increasingly tilted toward higher-income households.

Florida gained more wealth from domestic migration than any other state in 2023, according to a Realtor.com analysis of IRS data cited by Miami Association of Realtors chief economist Gay Cororaton. The newcomers also had the highest average income among domestic movers, at $122,530 a year, compared with a U.S. average salary of $64,505, according to Forbes Advisor data cited by Fortune.

That income gap matters in Miami’s housing market. Redfin data cited by Fortune put the average Miami home price at about $652,110, while the median U.S. home sale price was $398,771. Mortgage estimates cited by Fortune found that a buyer may need annual income of roughly $160,000 to $215,000 to carry a typical Miami house, a level beyond 80% to 85% of Americans based on Census data cited in the report.

Luxury demand meets a tight supply

Craig Studnicky, chief executive of South Florida luxury real estate firm ISG World, told Fortune that South Florida is seeing an unusual influx of wealthy buyers from across the country. He said the region has struggled to provide enough housing for middle- and upper-middle-income arrivals while waterfront prices have become hard to predict.

Citadel chief executive Ken Griffin’s $106.9 million purchase of a waterfront Coconut Grove mansion marked Miami’s first home sale above $100 million, according to Fortune. Studnicky told the publication that the deal reflected a larger wave of high-end wealth entering the area. Fortune also noted that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and former Google chief executive Eric Schmidt have homes in Florida.

Ryan McKeveny, managing director of equity research at housing consultancy Zelman, told Fortune that billionaire migration alone has not meaningfully lifted prices for the broader market. Housing experts cited by the publication pointed instead to long-running underbuilding, a shortage of available homes and persistent buyer demand at multiple income levels.

The shortage is most severe at lower price points. The Miami Association of Realtors said homes under $400,000 accounted for 2% of active single-family listings in Miami-Dade County in early 2025, while homes listed at $1 million or more made up 42% of the market. The group’s 2025 housing outlook found that only 14% of renter households in Southeast Florida could afford to buy a single-family home or condo.

Condos, financing and schools add pressure

Studnicky told Fortune that Florida’s post-Champlain Towers South condo safety rules are also affecting buyer behavior. After the deadly 2021 collapse, the state required tougher inspections for certain condo and cooperative buildings that are at least three stories and 30 years old, leaving some owners facing special assessments that can reach hundreds of thousands of dollars, according to Fortune.

Some buyers are avoiding those costs by favoring newer buildings, Studnicky said. He also told Fortune that developers are not adding housing quickly enough because higher borrowing costs have made large projects harder to finance.

County officials cited by Fortune said Miami-Dade added about 305,600 residents between 2010 and 2025. They estimate the region needs just under 200,000 more housing units to meet current renter demand alone.

McKeveny told Fortune that affordable new construction remains limited in South Florida, especially for single-family homes, partly because the region has limited land. He said Southeast Florida ranks 35th nationally by home-building communities, leaving fewer new homes at moderate prices.

Renting remains the practical option

For many middle-income arrivals, experts told Fortune that renting is more realistic than buying. Studnicky said someone earning $75,000 a year could live comfortably in a South Miami rental, even if ownership near the beach or in higher-end condos has become expensive.

McKeveny told Fortune that workers earning less than six figures face similar constraints in Miami as in New York, San Francisco and Boston. He said a $100,000 salary may still fall short for a mortgage on a $650,000 home, leaving buyers to seek lower-priced properties or rent.

McKeveny said Miami prices may stay flat or slip slightly over the next year as inventory improves. He told Fortune that Miami’s housing supply is about 10% below 2019 levels, compared with a 14% shortfall across the 100 largest U.S. housing markets, and said Miami is currently performing better than national transaction trends.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.