Great Postponement challenges the American Dream, Wharton professor says

The Great Postponement is reshaping the American Dream, Wharton professor Susan Wachter argues, as high housing costs push homeownership and other adult milestones later in life. Wachter says the shift matters because family resources now play a larger role in who can buy a home and build financial security.

In an essay published by the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, Wachter examined the state of the American Dream as the United States approaches its 250th year. She wrote that the older sequence of finishing school, getting work, marrying, buying a home and raising children has become harder to follow, especially since affordability worsened after 2022.

Wachter cited a sharp change in housing conditions: mortgage rates rose from 3% to 6%, while home prices increased 40%. For new buyers, she wrote, housing costs have more than doubled.

What is the Great Postponement?

The Great Postponement is Wachter’s term for the delay of homeownership and other life markers that once defined the American Dream. It describes young adults moving later into marriage, parenthood and independent living, often while already employed.

Realtor.com reported in a June study that a record 25.2 million adults under 35 were living with their parents in 2025, close to one in three people in that age group. The study found that 70% of those young adults had jobs, suggesting the rise in co-residence is not driven mainly by unemployment.

Other federal and medical data show later family formation. The Census Bureau reported in December that the estimated median age at first marriage reached 30.8 for men and 28.4 for women, compared with 23.5 and 21.1 in 1975. A 2025 report published in the National Library of Medicine said the average age of mothers at first birth rose from 26.6 in 2016 to 27.5 in 2023.

Wachter said economics is not the only reason people are delaying marriage and children. She also pointed to expanded education and career options for women, who are increasingly choosing to wait longer before marriage and childbirth.

Why is homeownership harder for young adults?

Housing remains the central financial barrier in Wachter’s analysis. Freddie Mac data show the 30-year mortgage rate was 3.45% a decade ago and stood at 6.58% in 2026.

The National Association of Realtors’ housing affordability index also shows how close buyers are to the edge. The group defines a reading above 100 as indicating that a median-income family has enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home; the index was just under 97 in 2023 and 105.1 in May, the most recent confirmed figure cited.

Wachter wrote that buying a first home is increasingly becoming a prize reached after years of saving, career gains and help from relatives, rather than an early step toward stability. That makes family wealth more important for young adults trying to buy property.

She described the result as a more “K-shaped” economy. In her view, young adults with access to parental money can continue toward homeownership, while similarly capable peers without that support face steeper barriers.

Wachter also pointed to new housing policy efforts, including the 21st Century Road to Housing Act, which passed this year and includes measures intended to boost housing supply and widen access to affordable homes. She said the open question is whether policy can change quickly enough so the American Dream rests more on opportunity and work than on the circumstances of birth.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.