Red Sea oil prices rise as analysts track Houthi tanker rules
Brent topped $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, with analysts watching whether China-linked ships still pass Bab el-Mandeb.
By Daniel Okafor · Business Editor
3 min read
Red Sea oil prices moved back into focus Thursday after Brent futures climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since late May, as analysts watched how Yemen’s Houthis enforce a new blockade on Saudi-linked shipping.
Brent rose $6.58, or 6.96%, to $100.65 a barrel, Al Jazeera reported. The move followed Houthi statements that the group would cut off a route Riyadh had used for some crude shipments after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to United States and Israeli attacks.
The Houthis said Monday they had imposed a naval blockade on shipments from Saudi Arabia and would target tankers linked to Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States in the Bab el-Mandeb. The strait connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean and is a key passage for ships moving between the Middle East, Europe and Asia.
Which tankers can pass through the Red Sea blockade?
Maritime analysts are watching whether the Houthis allow Chinese-owned or China-bound tankers to keep moving through Bab el-Mandeb. Michelle Bockmann, a senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, told Al Jazeera that the group’s rules remain unclear and that two China-linked tankers had passed after being loaded before the blockade announcement.
Windward said tracking data showed cargo that crossed Bab el-Mandeb on July 20 was Saudi in origin but had a Chinese crew and destination, and was not stopped. The firm said the pattern suggests the blockade may depend more on a vessel’s ties than on the origin of the crude itself.
Bockmann said the Houthis have previously treated Chinese-linked shipping differently, including during the group’s attacks on Israel- and US-aligned cargo ships between 2023 and 2025 after the war on Gaza began. She told Al Jazeera that oil markets can react even when the group takes limited action.
On Thursday, the Houthis said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers. A Saudi news agency later confirmed one of the vessels caught fire, while Windward said it was unclear whether the second tanker was hit.
Why are oil markets reacting now?
The Bab el-Mandeb pressure comes on top of the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil moved before the US-Israel war on Iran, according to Al Jazeera. Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said the standoff shows several maritime chokepoints being used as points of leverage at the same time.
Fuel prices are also responding. Al Jazeera reported the US national average gasoline price reached $4.09 a gallon, and Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the oil price rise could add 10 to 20 cents a gallon over the next week or two.
De Haan said diesel is under greater pressure, with the average price at $5.34 a gallon. He attributed part of the strain to Ukrainian drone attacks that have knocked out some Russian refining capacity, contributing to domestic shortages and a Russian ban on diesel exports.
China is another variable, according to De Haan. He said China had cut oil imports in recent months, easing some demand pressure, but it remains unclear whether Beijing has been drawing on strategic reserves or will return to higher import levels.
De Haan also pointed to the coming US hurricane season as another risk for refining capacity and fuel prices. For oil traders, the immediate test is whether Houthi enforcement at Bab el-Mandeb blocks Saudi barrels broadly or reshapes which ships are allowed to carry them.
This story draws on original reporting from Al Jazeera.