England, Argentina favored as World Cup semifinal race narrows

The last two semifinal spots at the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be decided Saturday, with England playing Norway and defending champion Argentina facing Switzerland. Al Jazeera and The Associated Press reported that France and Spain have already reached the final four, leaving four teams to complete the bracket.

England enter their quarterfinal as favorites against Norway, while Argentina hold the same status against Switzerland, according to Opta’s pre-match model. Both underdogs arrive with a chance to extend runs that have already shaped the tournament’s closing week.

Saturday’s quarterfinal schedule

• Norway vs England: Saturday, July 11, 5pm local time, 21:00 GMT, at Miami Stadium in the United States.
• Argentina vs Switzerland: Saturday, July 11, 8pm local time, 01:00 GMT Sunday, at Kansas City Stadium in the United States.

Al Jazeera and AP reported that France will meet Spain on Tuesday, July 14, at 19:00 GMT at Dallas Stadium. The winners of Saturday’s matches will play on July 15 at 19:00 GMT at Atlanta Stadium.

England hold the edge on paper

Opta’s supercomputer gives England a 50.4 percent chance of beating Norway in 90 minutes, based on 25,000 simulations. England’s overall chance of advancing, including extra time and penalties, rises to 62.3 percent.

Norway were given a 25.1 percent chance of winning in regulation, while 24.6 percent of simulations finished level after 90 minutes, according to Opta. Al Jazeera and AP reported that England and Norway have met 12 times, with England winning eight and Norway two.

The teams have not met before at a World Cup, according to Al Jazeera and AP. Norway have failed to score in the past four meetings, and England won their most recent match 1-0 in a September 2014 friendly.

Argentina favored against Switzerland

Opta gives Argentina a 57.1 percent chance of beating Switzerland in normal time. Across the full tie, including extra time and penalties, Argentina advance in 69.4 percent of simulations, while Switzerland progress in 30.6 percent.

Switzerland were assigned an 18.7 percent chance of winning inside 90 minutes, with 24.2 percent of simulations ending level after regulation, according to Opta. Al Jazeera and AP reported that Argentina are unbeaten in seven previous matches against Switzerland, with five wins and two draws.

Haaland, Kane and the Golden Boot race

Al Jazeera and AP reported that England captain Harry Kane avoided ranking himself against Erling Haaland before the Norway match, saying the two strikers play in different ways. Kane said Haaland is “a machine, a beast” and praised his finishing, while adding that he hoped the Norway forward would have “a quiet day.”

The quarterfinal also affects the Golden Boot race. Al Jazeera and AP reported that Haaland has seven goals, one more than Kane, while Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe lead with eight each.

Haaland has also drawn support from Mexican fans online after Mexico’s elimination by England, according to Al Jazeera and AP. The Norway striker replied to one viral post with “I hear you” alongside Mexico-themed emojis, and answered another fan’s appeal to beat England with “Y si si?”

Other World Cup notes

The Portuguese Football Federation confirmed Friday that Jorge Jesus will replace Roberto Martinez as national coach, according to Al Jazeera and AP. Martinez left after Portugal’s 1-0 round-of-16 loss to Spain, and Jesus said he plans to speak with Cristiano Ronaldo before decisions are made about the forward’s international future.

Morocco’s run ended with a 2-0 quarterfinal defeat to France, Al Jazeera and AP reported. Morocco became the first African nation to reach consecutive World Cup quarterfinals and will cohost the 2030 tournament with Portugal and Spain.

France captain Kylian Mbappe said comparisons with the country’s greatest teams should wait, despite France being two wins from another title. Al Jazeera and AP reported that Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele have combined for 13 goals in the tournament.

This story draws on original reporting from Al Jazeera.