U.S. fossil power pipeline shifts toward natural gas, report finds
An EDF and Atlas Public Policy analysis finds fossil projects are taking a larger share of U.S. power plans, though clean energy still leads current additions.
By James Whitfield · Staff Writer
3 min read
The U.S. fossil power pipeline is taking a larger share of planned generating capacity, according to an analysis by Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy. The shift matters because the projects, mostly natural-gas plants, could shape future power costs and emissions if they are completed, while clean energy remains the leading source of capacity now being added.
The groups said fossil power made up 5% of new capacity in 2024 and about 30% of the development pipeline in their latest assessment. If the projects advance as planned, fossil fuels could account for about 70% of new capacity coming online in 2030, according to their report. EDF and Atlas said nearly all of the expected fossil buildout is natural gas rather than coal.
Developers expect to build about 68 gigawatts of fossil capacity between 2026 and 2030, the groups said, a 45% increase in planned capacity over six months. That is a forecast based on project plans, not a measure of electricity already generated or a guarantee that the plants will be built.
What does the U.S. fossil power pipeline shift mean?
It indicates that fossil projects account for a greater share of future U.S. power plans than they did in 2024. It does not establish that fossil fuels have regained dominance in electricity generation or that renewable development has stopped.
EDF and Atlas attributed the change to rising electricity demand, including growth in data centers, alongside federal policy changes affecting energy development. The groups cited actions that ended wind and solar credits, delayed or blocked clean-energy projects, supported fossil-fuel investment and required some coal plants scheduled for retirement to keep operating.
There are significant limits to the forecast. EDF and Atlas said shortages of gas turbines, higher costs and uncertainty about future electricity demand could keep some fossil projects from moving ahead. The Verge also reported that forecasts for AI data-center demand could prove too high, leaving planned plants without the expected need for their output.
Clean power remains a substantial part of the picture. In an earlier first-quarter 2026 assessment, EDF and Atlas said clean energy represented nearly three-quarters of U.S. generating capacity planned or under construction. The groups reported that 51.6 gigawatts of clean-power capacity came online in 2025, and they expected 79.7 gigawatts in 2026.
The reports also show pressure on renewable projects. EDF and Atlas said developers canceled 4.9% of planned and under-construction clean capacity in 2025, compared with 2.9% of fossil projects. The Verge reported that the analysis found new utility-scale solar and wind cost an average of $68 to $69 per megawatt-hour, versus $90 per megawatt-hour for new combined-cycle natural-gas plants.
Fossil fuels include oil, coal and natural gas, all nonrenewable sources, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The report's central finding is narrower: a changing mix of planned U.S. power capacity, with natural gas gaining ground even as clean power continues to dominate additions already reaching the grid.
This story draws on original reporting from The Verge.