Pandemic A-level grading boosted private school and poorer applicants

Teacher-assessed A-level grades during the COVID-19 pandemic improved university prospects most for private school pupils, while also helping disadvantaged applicants in some state schools, according to University of Cambridge research. The findings matter because the 2020 grading upheaval may offer evidence on what happens when more students reach selective university courses than standard exams would usually allow.

The study, published in Oxford Economic Papers, examined the move to Center-Assessed Grades after exams were canceled. Cambridge said it is the first empirical assessment of how that shift affected applicants’ routes into higher education.

Researchers found “substantial” grade inflation in 2020, with A-level results rising by about a third of a grade on average. The increases varied by subject, from 0.186 grade points in Economics to 0.412 in English literature, according to the study.

Private schools saw larger gains

The Cambridge team said grade inflation was higher across subjects for private school applicants than for state school applicants. In Psychology, the average increase was 0.414 grade points for private school applicants and 0.253 for state school applicants.

Dr. Konstantina Maragkou of Cambridge’s Faculty of Education, the study’s lead author, said the pattern suggests private schools were better able to make use of the grading system. The findings support concerns raised at the time that private schools benefited disproportionately from the replacement of exams with teacher assessments.

The picture was not confined to private education. Among state schools, researchers found larger-than-average grade increases in schools with the highest concentrations of disadvantaged pupils. The team said this may reflect a “ceiling and floor” effect, because pupils with lower usual attainment had more room for upward adjustment.

Maragkou said the assumption that teacher-assessed grading only widened inequality misses part of the story. She said the system amplified private school advantages, but also opened access to highly selective courses for some students who would usually have been filtered out by standard exams.

Admissions effects

The study used data on 941,708 university applicants between 2017 and 2020. It covered 10 A-level subjects: Biology, Chemistry, Economics, English literature, Geography, History, Math, Physics, Psychology and Sociology.

Researchers compared the gap between predicted grades submitted before the pandemic and final 2020 grades with the same gap in earlier years. Cambridge said that approach allowed the team to isolate inflation linked to the 2020 grading system, because predicted grades had already been submitted for university applications in January, before exams were canceled.

The study found that each additional increase in grade inflation raised the chance of applicants getting onto their first-choice university course by between 2 and 4.2 percentage points. It also reduced the likelihood of applicants entering clearing or missing out on a place, according to the researchers.

The 2020 grading process was politically contentious. After exams were canceled in March, the government first planned to standardize teacher-assessed grades using historical data, then changed course after public backlash and awarded students whichever was higher: the teacher-assessed grade or the standardized grade.

Cambridge researchers said the 2020 cohort, now entering the labor market, could help answer longer-term questions about admissions and social mobility. Maragkou said it remains too early to know whether improved university access will lead to better outcomes, but the cohort may reveal untapped potential in the education system.

This story draws on original reporting from Phys.org.