Wealthiest households carry US consumer spending as stock risks build
Moody’s Mark Zandi says the top 20% of earners now account for 60% of personal outlays, tying the economy more tightly to stock-market gains.
By Sofia Marchetti · World Affairs Correspondent
3 min read
The U.S. consumer economy is increasingly being driven by its highest earners, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says. That concentration matters because the spending strength of wealthier households depends heavily on stock prices that Zandi says are showing signs of strain.
In a note reported by Fortune, Zandi said households earning at least $200,000 a year are providing the main lift to consumer spending. Over the year through the first quarter of 2026, spending by the richest 20% rose 6.5%, or 4% after adjusting for inflation, according to his analysis.
For the remaining 80% of households, Zandi said inflation-adjusted spending was flat over the same period. He linked that split to the sour public mood around personal finances, even as headline economic indicators remain comparatively firm.
The top 20% now account for 60% of personal spending, Zandi said. Fortune reported that before the dot-com bust, the richest fifth of Americans made up about half of consumer spending, supported then by rising portfolio values.
A K-shaped pattern persists
Zandi described the economy as K-shaped, with higher-income households advancing while most others fall behind. Moody’s analysis of Federal Reserve personal finance data found that since the pandemic, spending among the bottom 80% has grown 4.5%, only slightly above inflation of 3.9%.
By comparison, the top 20% increased spending by 8.3% over that period, according to Moody’s. Fortune also noted that unemployment has remained relatively steady, gross domestic product grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the first quarter of 2026, inflation is still elevated, and consumers overall have continued to spend.
That split helps explain why economic data can look better than many households feel, according to Zandi’s analysis. Fortune reported that affordability could be central in the midterm political fight in Washington as voters seek relief from higher costs.
Stock wealth is the weak link
Zandi said the spending gap reflects the wealth effect, in which rising household assets increase consumers’ willingness and capacity to spend. He compared the current pattern with the late 1990s, when rising equity values helped fuel spending by affluent households.
The risk, Zandi said, is that the assets supporting that spending are concentrated in the same group. Citing Federal Reserve distributional accounts, he said nearly 90% of corporate equities and mutual fund holdings belong to households in the top 20% of the income distribution, and that ownership has become more skewed in recent years.
Zandi stopped short of calling the stock market a bubble, but said some areas look overvalued and close to speculative. He pointed to price-to-earnings multiples around 19 times as a valuation signal that is raising caution.
Artificial intelligence shares have climbed for solid business reasons, Zandi said, because the technology has strong potential. He also said index funds have amplified those gains by buying more AI-related stocks as those companies take up a larger share of benchmarks.
If stock prices keep rising, Zandi said wealthier consumers and the broader economy could continue to hold up. If the market weakens, he warned, those households could pull back, leaving the wider economy exposed.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.