Larry Ellison backs longevity research as aging populations reshape economies

Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison is putting hundreds of millions of pounds of his own money into longevity research, Fortune reported, a bet aimed at extending healthy years rather than only lengthening life. The effort comes as aging populations in Europe and the United States put more pressure on health systems, pension models and employers.

Fortune reported that Ellison’s Oxford institute has made generative biology central to its work. Andrew Scott, an economics professor and longevity specialist, serves as a principal scientist at the institute, according to Fortune.

Scott told Fortune that a child born today has a 50% chance of reaching age 90. He also said future job growth will come largely from people older than 50, pointing to the U.K., where about 80% of people are working at age 50 but only 30% are working by age 65.

Scott said that if the decline in employment between ages 50 and 65 were cut in half, the U.K. could see a 4% gain in GDP. His argument, as reported by Fortune, is that longer, healthier working lives could soften some of the economic strain caused by aging populations.

The demographic pressure is already visible. Fortune reported that more than one-fifth of the European Union’s population is at least 65, while the U.S. figure is one in six, or about 61 million people. In the U.S., that total is projected to rise above 80 million by 2050, and the number of centenarians is expected to double, according to Fortune.

Europe faces a sharper workforce squeeze. Fortune cited projections showing that people ages 15 to 64 made up 64% of the EU population in 2022, a share expected to fall to 54% by 2100. The EU’s fertility rate fell to 1.38 live births per woman in 2023, Fortune reported, the lowest level since comparable records began in 1961 and below the 2.1 rate needed to maintain population levels without migration.

Fortune, citing World Population Review, reported that populations are declining in Portugal, Spain, Germany, Italy and Poland. Without immigration, Fortune said, that decline would become steeper.

The health-care burden is concentrated late in life. Fortune reported that research discussed at an Oliver Wyman-hosted event in London found that more than 80% of the average person’s health-care spending occurs in the final decade of life.

Sir Jonathan Symonds, chairman of GSK, has argued that “health span,” or the years people live in good health, matters as much as life span, according to Fortune. Fortune reported that Symonds favors earlier detection of health risks and a broader view of well-being as an economic and social asset.

Oliver Wyman research compiled for Fortune also found signs of a split in access to wellness spending. Among high-income groups, 65% said their overall well-being was likely to improve over the next 12 months, Fortune reported.

Rupal Kantaria, a partner at Oliver Wyman Forum, told Fortune that the longevity economy is becoming a growth area, while health care is dividing by income. She said wealthier consumers are spending on personalized prevention and longevity services, while lower-income households face more illness and debt, with middle-income groups squeezed between public support and private affordability.

Fortune framed the issue as one that reaches beyond medicine. Governments and companies face decisions on workforce planning, preventive care, retirement, housing and workplace benefits as people live longer and older adults make up a larger share of society.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.