Kalshi’s World Cup surge pushes marketers toward live-event stunts

Kalshi redirected its marketing operation toward the World Cup after early tournament data showed user interest running ahead of its plans, executives told Fortune. The shift highlights how the prediction-market company is using live events and internet culture to reach audiences while its business faces regulatory fights.

Chief marketing officer Allan Maman told Fortune he was checking company dashboards hourly after the tournament began in the U.S. Within roughly three to four days, he said, Kalshi saw stronger-than-expected organic signups and trading volume.

Kalshi had entered the tournament with a conventional campaign that included billboards and advertising partnerships with Jose Mourinho, Luka Modric and several former national team players, according to Fortune. Maman said the company then moved away from its standing marketing plan and focused heavily on the World Cup.

Fast-turnaround events

One example was a Miami lookalike contest built around Erling Haaland after the soccer star became a major online subject during the tournament. Maman told Fortune the idea went from planning to execution in about a week, drawing about 200 people and awarding the winner two tickets to that day’s match.

Kalshi soon followed with a Lionel Messi lookalike contest in New York tied to the final, according to Fortune. The event was hosted by a former Argentine taxi driver who had long been told he resembled Messi.

Brandon Beckhardt, who leads growth at Kalshi, described the marketing group to Fortune as a roughly 20-person operation that works more like a newsroom than a fixed campaign calendar. He said the team prizes people who are highly online and can generate ideas quickly.

Maman told Fortune that artificial intelligence plays a limited practical role in the process. He estimated the team’s decisions rely far more on instinct than AI tools, and said Kalshi’s small team made it easier to change direction quickly.

The company has also used a mobile robot called BingBot at public events, including outside Madison Square Garden during the NBA Finals, World Cup gatherings and Washington events for America’s 250th birthday, according to Fortune. Beckhardt said BingBot content generated about half a billion organic views around the NBA Finals.

Live moments and market data

Fortune reported that Kalshi executives see a broader pattern in the company’s data: activity rises around shared live events. Maman pointed to the World Cup, football season, elections and awards shows as moments when users want to see what others think in real time.

Company data shared with Fortune showed World Cup volume on Kalshi rising from $6.67 billion by June 22 to $24.2 billion by July 14. By July 15, the market on the tournament winner alone had passed $1.2 billion.

Fortune also reported that about 75% of Kalshi visitors do not trade, suggesting many users treat the site as a gauge of public expectations. Bloomberg has begun adding Kalshi data to its terminal, Fortune noted, because price movement in prediction markets can precede formal news reports.

University of Chicago economist Alex Imas told Fortune that demand for live events and experiences is very strong, and said synthetic content online can make human experiences more scarce and valuable. Fortune also cited Wembley Stadium’s projection of 3 million concertgoers this summer and Pollstar data showing double-digit growth in stadium shows worldwide in 2025.

Kalshi remains under legal scrutiny even as its audience grows. Fortune reported that the company holds a Commodity Futures Trading Commission designation as a designated contract market, while the CFTC is seeking to block some sports-related contracts involving injuries, officiating calls and other discrete actions.

Kentucky has sued Kalshi over allegations tied to unlicensed sports betting, and the CFTC has countersued to assert federal authority, according to Fortune. The company also recently paused contracts tied to flight cancellations.

Beckhardt told Fortune that Kalshi sees itself as a next-generation financial exchange covering sports, politics, culture and economics. Its World Cup campaign showed how closely the company is tying that pitch to live events people are already watching together.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.