2026 midterm elections test both parties as primaries turn volatile

The 2026 midterm elections have become less predictable as both major parties deal with candidate troubles, ideological splits and the political pull of President Donald Trump. With a little more than three months before voting, races that party leaders expected to frame around the economy, border security or Trump’s unpopularity have been complicated by internal fights, according to the Associated Press.

Pollster Frank Luntz told the AP the campaign year has been marked by “a sense of chaos and confusion,” adding that the outcome in November remains unclear.

What is dividing Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections?

Democrats are split between establishment-backed candidates and progressive or democratic socialist contenders in several important races. Party leaders quoted by the AP worry that some nominees could struggle in general elections, while progressive groups argue that outsiders and left-leaning candidates are energizing voters who want a break from traditional politics.

Wisconsin has become one of the latest flashpoints. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez ended her campaign for governor after a campaign finance scandal, according to the AP, leaving some Democrats concerned that Francesca Hong, described by the AP as a democratic socialist, could gain ground in the primary. Party leaders view U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany as the likely Republican nominee.

Longtime Wisconsin liberal activist Scot Ross told the AP that Democrats fear a loss would hand the governor’s office to one of Trump’s strongest allies in Congress. Ross also said he expects Democrats to support whoever wins the primary once the nomination is settled.

In Maine, Democrats are trying to defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins as part of their effort to win the Senate majority. The AP reported that Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and outsider candidate, won the Democratic nomination but dropped out after a sexual assault allegation, which he denies. His campaign had already faced scrutiny over a tattoo widely recognized as a Nazi symbol and past inflammatory social media posts, according to the AP.

Democrats are holding a convention this weekend to pick a replacement candidate, the AP reported. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake told the AP that voters and activists have shown a willingness to overlook weaknesses in outsider candidates, and she linked that tolerance for risk in part to Trump’s effect on politics.

Senate races show deeper policy rifts

Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary has exposed another divide. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive favorite, has alarmed some party leaders, including Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, who worry he may be too far left for a seat Democrats need to keep if they are to compete for Senate control, according to the AP.

The race also reflects Democratic divisions over Israel and Gaza. El-Sayed has called Israel’s military campaign in Gaza a genocide, an allegation Israel and the White House reject. The AP reported that AIPAC and affiliated groups have spent close to $30 million supporting his primary opponent, Haley Stevens.

Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, told the AP that candidates such as El-Sayed could show that forceful economic populists can compete in purple and red states. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., took a different tone, telling the AP that contested primaries and arguments over ideas are signs of a healthy party.

Republicans face Trump-era risks of their own

Republicans are also dealing with disruption as they try to keep control of Congress, according to the AP. Trump has influenced the Senate map by pushing aside some incumbents and backing loyalists, including in Texas, where he supported Ken Paxton over longtime Sen. John Cornyn.

Republican leaders had warned that Paxton, who has faced a lengthy history of corruption allegations, could make Texas more competitive and force the party to spend money defending a seat it otherwise expected to hold, the AP reported. In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis chose not to run again after clashing with Trump, and Democrats hope former Gov. Roy Cooper can flip the seat.

Trump remains central to both parties’ midterm calculations. The latest AP-NORC poll cited by the AP found that 37% of U.S. adults approve of his handling of the presidency, with dissatisfaction over the economy and other issues. The AP also reported that Trump has continued military action against Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and used a prime-time address to keep disputing his 2020 defeat while calling for stricter voting laws.

Lake told the AP that Trump remains Democrats’ strongest political asset. Jenny Beth Martin, chair of Tea Party Patriots Action, said in a statement to the AP that Trump is Republicans’ greatest advantage because of the turnout energy he brings to the party.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.