World Cup Friday finales leave 13 knockout berths in play

The World Cup group stage reaches another decisive day Friday, with Groups G, H and I playing their final matches. Al Jazeera reported that 13 Round of 32 places remain available, while first place is still unsettled in several groups.

France and Norway have already qualified from Group I, but their meeting will decide who finishes top. Spain lead Group H, while Egypt sit first in Group G, with Iran, Belgium, Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia among the teams still trying to extend their tournaments, according to Al Jazeera.

Friday schedule

• Norway vs France, Boston Stadium, United States, 3pm EDT / 19:00 GMT.
• Senegal vs Iraq, Toronto Stadium, Canada, 3pm EDT / 19:00 GMT.
• Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia, Houston Stadium, United States, 7pm CDT / 00:00 GMT Saturday.
• Uruguay vs Spain, Estadio Guadalajara, Mexico, 6pm CST / 00:00 GMT Saturday.
• Egypt vs Iran, Seattle Stadium, United States, 8pm PDT / 03:00 GMT Saturday.
• New Zealand vs Belgium, BC Place, Vancouver, Canada, 8pm PDT / 03:00 GMT Saturday.

Opta gives France and Spain the edge

Opta’s supercomputer rates France as the favourite against Norway, giving Didier Deschamps’s side a 59.4 percent win probability. Opta puts a draw at 20.6 percent, a result that would be enough for France to win Group I, while Norway are given a 20 percent chance.

Al Jazeera reported that Norway have beaten France only twice in competitive matches and have not defeated them in such a fixture since a European Championship qualifier in 1987. France have won their past five World Cup matches against European teams, according to the same report.

Senegal are also strongly favoured. Opta gives them a 77.2 percent chance of beating Iraq, compared with 8.6 percent for Iraq and 14.2 percent for a draw. Senegal cannot win Group I, but Opta gives them a 72.2 percent chance of reaching the last 32, while Iraq’s chance is listed at 1.1 percent.

In Group H, Opta gives Cape Verde a narrow advantage over Saudi Arabia, with a 40.8 percent chance of victory against 33.9 percent for the Saudis. The draw is rated at 25.3 percent. Opta lists Cape Verde’s knockout chance at 66.7 percent and Saudi Arabia’s at 33.3 percent.

Spain are the clear favourites against Uruguay, according to Opta, winning 62.4 percent of 25,000 pre-match simulations. Uruguay won 15.7 percent of those simulations, while 21.9 percent ended level. Al Jazeera reported that the countries’ two previous World Cup meetings, in 1950 and 1990, both finished as draws.

Group G remains tight

Egypt face Iran in their first World Cup meeting, with Opta giving Egypt a 42.9 percent chance of winning. Iran are rated at 24.9 percent, while the draw stands at 32.2 percent. Al Jazeera reported that Iran are unbeaten against African teams at the World Cup, with a win over Morocco and draws against Angola and Nigeria.

Belgium are heavy favourites against New Zealand in Vancouver. Opta gives Belgium an 80.3 percent win probability, with New Zealand at 7.9 percent and a draw at 11.8 percent. Al Jazeera noted that Belgium could become the first European team since Belgium in 1998 to draw all three group-stage games at a World Cup.

Who is already through

Al Jazeera reported that six groups have completed play. Mexico, South Africa, Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Morocco, the United States, Australia, Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, the Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, France and Norway have secured knockout places.

Mexico are the only team with nine points from three group games, according to Al Jazeera. Groups J, K and L are due to finish Saturday.

Away from Friday’s fixtures, Al Jazeera reported that Turkiye beat the United States 3-2 with a 98th-minute winner in an already-settled Group D finale. Local media also reported that more than 35,000 Netherlands fans joined an Oranje Fanwalk in Kansas City before the Dutch match against Tunisia.

This story draws on original reporting from Al Jazeera.