Opta favors Mexico and Canada in World Cup day eight matches

The 2026 World Cup continues Thursday with four group-stage matches, led by Mexico’s meeting with South Korea in Guadalajara and Canada’s home game against Qatar in Vancouver. Al Jazeera and The Associated Press reported that both Mexico and South Korea opened with wins, giving their Group A match early knockout-stage weight.

Opta’s tournament model gives Mexico the edge against South Korea, while Canada are the strongest favorite of the day against Qatar. The fixtures come as early Golden Boot contenders emerge and several surprise results shape the first round of group play.

Thursday’s World Cup schedule

• Czechia vs South Africa at Atlanta Stadium in Atlanta at noon local time, 16:00 GMT, according to Al Jazeera.
• Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina at Los Angeles Stadium at noon local time, 19:00 GMT, according to Al Jazeera.
• Canada vs Qatar at Vancouver Stadium at 3pm local time, 22:00 GMT, according to Al Jazeera.
• Mexico vs South Korea at Guadalajara Stadium at 7pm local time, 01:00 GMT Friday, according to Al Jazeera.

Opta’s match forecasts

Mexico have won both of their previous World Cup games against South Korea, including a 2-1 victory at the 2018 tournament in Russia, according to Al Jazeera and AP. Opta’s supercomputer, using 25,000 pre-match simulations, put Mexico’s win probability at 49.1 percent, South Korea’s at 24.3 percent and the draw at 26.6 percent.

Czechia are also favored in their match against South Africa. Opta gave Czechia a 54.9 percent chance of winning, compared with 21.8 percent for South Africa. Al Jazeera and AP noted that South Africa have lost only one of their last four World Cup matches against European opposition, while Czechia lost 2-0 to Ghana in their only previous World Cup game against an African team.

Switzerland enter as clear favorites against Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to Opta. The model had Switzerland winning 61.6 percent of simulations, Bosnia winning 17 percent and a draw occurring 21.4 percent of the time. Al Jazeera and AP reported that the countries have not met at a World Cup; Bosnia won their only previous match, a 2016 friendly in Zurich, 2-0.

Canada are the day’s heaviest favorites. Opta gave Canada a 72.9 percent chance to beat Qatar, with a 16.5 percent chance of a draw and a 10.6 percent chance of a Qatar win. Al Jazeera and AP reported that World Cup hosts have won all three prior matches against teams from the Asian confederation: Mexico over Iraq in 1986, France over Saudi Arabia in 1998 and Russia over Saudi Arabia in 2018.

Early tournament storylines

Lionel Messi leads the Golden Boot race with three goals after scoring a hat-trick in Argentina’s opening win over Algeria, according to Al Jazeera and AP. Seven players are one goal behind: Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland, Folarin Balogun, Kai Havertz, Yasin Ayari, Elijah Just and Harry Kane.

DR Congo earned a historic 1-1 draw with Portugal after Yoane Wissa scored the country’s first World Cup goal, according to Al Jazeera and AP. Cape Verde also made an early mark by holding Spain to a 0-0 draw in their first World Cup match, while Colombia beat debutants Uzbekistan 3-1 behind a strong performance from Luis Diaz.

FIFA’s hydration breaks remain under scrutiny, Al Jazeera and AP reported. FIFA says the stoppages are intended to protect players in summer heat across the United States, Canada and Mexico, while critics including Alan Shearer and Roy Keane have argued they interrupt the rhythm of matches.

Al Jazeera also reported that six sub-Saharan African teams are competing at the tournament, a record. The group includes South Africa, Ghana, Senegal, Ivory Coast, DR Congo and Cape Verde, with DR Congo returning for the first time since 1974 and Cape Verde making its debut.

This story draws on original reporting from Al Jazeera.