US homicide rate on pace for lowest level in more than a century
A Council on Criminal Justice report found homicides down 18% in 30 cities, with broad crime declines across several categories.
By Sofia Marchetti · World Affairs Correspondent
3 min read
The US homicide rate is on track for a historic low if current trends hold, according to a new Council on Criminal Justice report. The independent group said data from 30 American cities showed homicides down 18% in 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, equal to about 215 fewer killings.
The council said that pace would put the annual homicide rate at its lowest level in more than 100 years once final figures are available at year’s end. The finding is notable because it builds on a broader retreat from the violence increases that followed the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report, released Thursday, examined 13 crime categories. The Council on Criminal Justice said nine declined, including carjackings, residential burglaries and aggravated assaults.
Four categories moved higher over the same period, according to the report: shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults and drug offenses. The increases were smaller than the homicide drop, and the council said drug offenses remained below 2019 levels.
Why is the US homicide rate falling?
Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, said the pattern spans cities with different political leaders, local economies and public safety approaches. That breadth suggests national factors are likely playing a larger role than any one city policy, Gelb said.
John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center, said no single explanation accounts for the decline. He pointed to possible factors including reduced drug use, fewer transactions in illegal markets often linked to violence, and federal pandemic-era aid that local governments spent on social programs.
Roman said those programs often supported teachers, social workers and others who work with young people at high risk of violence or victimization. He also said politicians are likely to cite different causes, with conservatives pointing to immigration enforcement and National Guard deployments in some cities, while liberals may cite federal gun safety legislation enacted under former President Joe Biden.
The council’s data also showed that serious violence became less deadly. Gelb said the lethality of violent crime, measured as the share of serious violent offenses that ended in death, fell 23%.
Property crime trends were mixed. The council said residential burglaries dropped 13% year over year and were down 50% compared with 2019, while reported shoplifting rose 5%.
The national pattern did not apply everywhere in the sample. The Council on Criminal Justice said about one-third of the 30 cities recorded more homicides in the first half of 2026 than in the same period of 2025.
Norfolk, Virginia, had a 64% increase, and San Francisco had a 55% increase, according to the report. On a longer comparison with 2019, the council said only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh and Minneapolis had more homicides in 2026 than in the same period before the pandemic.
The council said some crime categories used data from as many as 36 cities, while others relied on fewer cities because of gaps in reporting or differences in how agencies define specific offenses. Gelb said the results should be studied for lessons and described the decline as one of the most significant public safety developments in decades.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.