JPMorgan lifts AI infrastructure spending forecast to $5.5 trillion
JPMorgan says AI capital spending is rising faster than expected, with data centers, chips and hyperscalers driving the buildout.
By Maya Lindqvist · Senior Technology Correspondent
3 min read
JPMorgan Global Research has increased its estimate for AI-related capital spending through 2030 to $5.5 trillion, signaling that the buildout behind generative AI is still gaining speed. The bank said the investment cycle matters because companies are committing extraordinary sums to data centers, chips and related infrastructure while investors test whether revenue can keep pace.
In its midyear outlook released June 24, JPMorgan raised its forecast from $5.1 trillion, citing broader capacity expansion and more debt financing. The bank said AI-related borrowing could reach $4.1 trillion as loan-to-cost ratios rise.
JPMorgan said the current wave is led by what it described as upstream AI spending, including data centers, semiconductors and the systems needed to support them. The bank said the United States remains the center of the activity, accounting for about 85% of AI and machine learning venture capital, while China, South Korea and Taiwan are expected to benefit through semiconductor supply chains.
The spending surge is pushing large technology companies to look beyond their older business lines. Qualcomm, best known for mobile and smartphone chips, used its June 24 Investor Day to lay out an AI data center plan aimed at the infrastructure market.
Qualcomm said it expects its data center business to produce more than $15 billion in annual revenue by fiscal 2029. If the company reaches that target, the unit would become its largest growth business outside smartphones, according to Fortune.
Akash Palkhiwala, Qualcomm’s chief financial officer and chief operating officer, wrote on LinkedIn that the company is building a roadmap for next-generation AI data centers and entering the market with multi-year, multi-generation agreements with major customers. Qualcomm’s move adds another established chipmaker to a market already shaped by demand for AI computing capacity.
Memory supplier Micron also showed the impact of AI demand on chipmakers. Fortune reported that Micron on June 24 posted a 346% increase in quarterly revenue and quarterly profit of $28.2 billion, nearly 15 times the level from the same period a year earlier.
Fortune reported that Micron’s results helped improve investor sentiment after AI and technology stocks had sold off earlier in the week. The report said futures tied to both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 rose after the company’s earnings.
JPMorgan said spending by hyperscalers such as Amazon, Google and Microsoft is expected to keep climbing. The bank forecast hyperscaler capital expenditures of $650 billion in 2026 and more than $1.1 trillion in 2027.
The bank also said profitability remains strong at this stage of the cycle, with operating cash flow expected to top $900 billion by 2027. Microsoft, for example, expects about $190 billion in capital expenditures in calendar 2026, up 61% from the prior year, according to Fortune.
Fortune reported that Amazon, Google and Microsoft continue to show rising AI-related revenue. Investors, however, are still focused on whether enterprise adoption and monetization will justify the scale of spending described by JPMorgan.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.