Beef prices and GLP-1 habits reshape July 4 cookout carts

Americans are heading into the July 4 grilling season with beef still at the center of the cookout, even as higher prices push shoppers toward cheaper proteins and alcohol-free drinks. Fortune reported that food inflation, GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and changing drinking habits are altering what consumers put in their carts.

Beef prices are 14% higher than a year ago, with the average retail price near $10 a pound, according to Fortune. The report said a screwworm outbreak in Texas has added pressure to an already tight U.S. cattle supply.

David Swanson, a Wells Fargo food economist and co-author of the bank’s summer barbecue spending report, told Fortune that year-over-year beef price increases may flatten by October. He said that does not mean shoppers should expect cheaper beef, only that current prices may become more familiar.

Fortune reported that beef volumes are down only slightly from last year, suggesting consumers are cutting back at the edges rather than abandoning burgers. Swanson said beef remains a regular purchase for many households, though it may appear less often on the menu.

Chicken, pork and eggs gain room on the plate

Other proteins are benefiting from the squeeze. Chicken prices are up 3%, and Fortune reported that volumes have posted small gains as shoppers look for lower-cost substitutes.

Pork also offers value for hosts feeding groups, according to Swanson, with ribs, shoulder and similar cuts standing out as lower-cost options. Fortune reported that pork has not gained the same cultural momentum as chicken, despite its price advantage.

Eggs have shifted from last year’s inflation sore spot to a bargain item. Fortune reported that egg prices have dropped below their pre-avian flu levels, making them one of the better protein values in grocery stores.

That shift lines up with the spread of GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and Zepbound, according to Fortune. Swanson said the food industry is focused on “signal density,” meaning consumers who eat less overall are paying more attention to protein, fiber and other nutrients in each bite.

Fortune reported that this trend helps explain why protein claims are appearing across supermarket labels. In that context, deviled eggs fit both the lower-cost and higher-protein themes shaping cookout menus.

Seltzer rises as beer and wine slip

The cooler is changing too. Fortune reported that beer and wine volumes are down from a year earlier, even though prices are nearly flat, rising about 1%.

Swanson pointed to sparkling water as a stronger category. Fortune reported that seltzer prices are up 4.6% while volumes continue to rise, a sign that demand is holding even at higher prices.

Swanson told Fortune that sparkling water benefits because people can drink several cans without adding calories or alcohol. Fortune also reported that non-alcoholic beer has grown as a subcategory, while younger consumers, especially Gen Z, have shown more interest in lower-alcohol or alcohol-free habits.

Produce shows mixed demand

Some cookout vegetables are losing ground as prices rise. Fortune reported that cauliflower prices are up 9.2% and volumes have dropped sharply, while celery prices are up 8.3% and sales are falling.

Carrots are holding up better, according to Fortune, with prices up 3.6% and only a slight volume decline. Tomatoes are up 4.4%, with Fortune citing a January freeze in Florida and a new tariff structure involving Mexico as factors pushing fruit and vegetable prices up roughly 6% to 7% overall.

Fresh fruit is also uneven. Fortune reported that whole watermelon volumes are down despite little price movement, while strawberries are selling in lower volumes even though prices have fallen from last year.

Swanson told Fortune that the labor market remains the clearest guide to whether Americans will hold summer gatherings. If people are employed, he said, they are more likely to celebrate — though this year’s barbecue may include more chicken, eggs and sparkling water alongside the burger.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.