Makerfield vote puts Burnham’s Labour challenge within reach
The northwest England by-election could return Andy Burnham to Parliament and open a leadership fight with Keir Starmer.
By Daniel Okafor · Business Editor
4 min read
A by-election in Makerfield on Thursday could do more than fill one seat in Parliament: it could give Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham the route he needs to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for Labour’s leadership, Al Jazeera reported.
The vote was called after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned last month so Burnham could stand in the constituency, according to Al Jazeera. If Burnham wins, he plans to seek the leadership of the governing party.
Labour pressure builds
Starmer is under strain after poor local election results and the resignations this week of Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns over the UK defence budget, Al Jazeera reported.
Labour won the 2024 general election comfortably, but its support has fallen since then, according to Al Jazeera. In last month’s council elections, Labour lost nearly 1,500 local authority seats, while Reform UK rose from about 100 seats to roughly 1,450.
Al Jazeera reported that Labour has lost voters on different fronts: some have moved toward Reform UK over immigration and economic discontent, while others have shifted toward the Greens over Starmer’s position on Israel and welfare cuts. Ipsos has said Starmer has the lowest satisfaction rating it has recorded for any prime minister since its polling began in the late 1970s.
Burnham cannot run for Labour leader unless he is an MP. Al Jazeera reported that he was earlier blocked from contesting another by-election in Gorton and Denton, a seat Labour later lost to the Green Party.
Burnham faces Reform challenge
Makerfield has been Labour-held since the constituency was created in 1983, Al Jazeera reported. Reform UK finished second there at the last general election and took all eight local council seats in the area from Labour in May.
Burnham is one of Labour’s best-known figures outside Westminster. Al Jazeera reported that he served in cabinet under former prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown before becoming mayor of Greater Manchester.
As mayor, Burnham has promoted what he calls “Manchesterism,” which Al Jazeera described as a mix of business-friendly investment policy and public control of key services. He also gained a national profile during the COVID-19 pandemic and through his campaign over the Hillsborough disaster.
Political commentator Aaron Bastani told Al Jazeera that Burnham’s local reputation helps him against Reform, and that some Reform voters view him favourably because of his long record in the area. Bastani also said some voters still connect him with Labour’s record in government, including anger over the Iraq war and welfare policy.
Reform’s candidate is Robert Kenyon, a plumber whose campaign has faced allegations about earlier online posts. Anti-extremism group HOPE not hate said posts attributed to Kenyon included COVID-19 conspiracy theories, sexualised comments about television presenter Carol Vorderman and remarks about women’s rugby players, Al Jazeera reported.
HOPE not hate also said Kenyon made forum comments describing himself as sexist and claiming women make false rape allegations to access abortions, according to Al Jazeera.
Polling points to a tight race
An Opinium poll for Forward Democracy put Burnham on 46 percent among likely voters, compared with 41 percent for Kenyon, Al Jazeera reported. The survey questioned 543 local residents using mixed methods.
Restore Britain candidate Rebecca Shepherd was on 7 percent in the same poll, while Conservative candidate Michael Winstanley was on 2 percent, according to Al Jazeera. Restore Britain was founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, who argues Reform is too moderate on undocumented immigration.
The poll also suggested Reform UK may be better placed in a future general election in Makerfield, with 42 percent support compared with Labour’s 34 percent, Al Jazeera reported. That finding points to Burnham’s personal appeal as a factor in Labour’s stronger by-election showing.
Forward Democracy founder Tom de Grunwald told Al Jazeera that tactical voting could be decisive and said voters who want to stop Reform should back Burnham. Bastani told Al Jazeera he expects Burnham to win, but said the result should still be read against Reform’s broader rise.
This story draws on original reporting from Al Jazeera.