Gulf states weigh new security model after Iran war strains US shield
As Washington and Tehran move toward a ceasefire deal, Gulf governments face pressure to reassess reliance on US-backed security arrangements.
By James Whitfield · Staff Writer
3 min read
Gulf states are expected to review their security arrangements if a long-term ceasefire between the United States and Iran takes hold, Al Jazeera reported. The pressure comes after months of attacks on Gulf territory during a war the Gulf governments did not initiate, exposing limits in a decades-old security system built around US military power.
US President Donald Trump cancelled new strikes on Iran and said an agreement with Tehran was close, according to Al Jazeera. A senior Iranian official told the network that Tehran was still studying a proposed memorandum of understanding with Washington, while later comments by Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif suggested a deal was advancing.
US presence under scrutiny
The Council on Foreign Relations says the United States operates military facilities in at least 19 locations across the Middle East and North Africa, including permanent bases in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Between 40,000 and 50,000 US troops were in the region before the war began, according to the council figures cited by Al Jazeera.
That network of bases has long underpinned Gulf security policy. Mahjoub Al-Zuwairi, a Middle East politics scholar, told Al Jazeera that regional states had tied their defence to wide international partnerships since the 1980s, gaining deterrence as well as logistical and intelligence support.
The war has challenged that approach. Al Jazeera reported that Iran has targeted Gulf states hosting US military facilities, even as Gulf governments said attacks on Iran were not launched from their territory.
At least 28 people have been killed across the six Gulf Cooperation Council states in suspected Iranian drone and rocket attacks since the US and Israel began their offensive against Iran on February 28, according to Al Jazeera. Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations at Lancaster University, told the network that the conflict had damaged confidence in the US security umbrella and showed that hosting US forces could turn Gulf states into targets.
Hormuz pressure adds urgency
The conflict has also hit economic plans in parts of the Gulf, according to Al Jazeera. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted states that rely on the waterway for energy exports while they are trying to expand tourism, finance and services.
Saudi Arabia has been able to send some oil through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, and Oman’s main ports sit outside the strait, Al Jazeera reported. The UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar have been more exposed because of their dependence on Hormuz.
Mabon told Al Jazeera that alternative pipelines are being developed but have far less capacity than the strait. He said matching Hormuz would require heavy investment and years of work.
Regional options remain difficult
One option discussed by analysts is more engagement with Iran. Al Jazeera noted that the UAE restored diplomatic ties with Tehran in 2022, and Saudi Arabia and Iran normalised relations in a China-brokered deal a year later.
Al-Zuwairi told Al Jazeera the war could renew interest in regional security proposals such as Iran’s 2019 Hormuz Peace Initiative, which envisioned a framework involving Iran, Iraq and the six GCC states. He also said recent Iranian attacks on neighbouring Gulf cities make such plans difficult unless Tehran changes its conduct.
Al Jazeera reported that Gulf states may look for a mixed approach: keeping ties with Washington while investing more in domestic defence and regional partnerships. The Saudi-Pakistani mutual defence agreement signed last September, under which an attack on one would be treated as an attack on both, was cited as one possible model.
This story draws on original reporting from Al Jazeera.