Global median age rises as fertility rates fall, UN data shows
UN figures analyzed by Al Jazeera show the world is ageing as fertility nears replacement level and population growth slows.
By James Whitfield · Staff Writer
3 min read
Al Jazeera has released an interactive tool that uses United Nations Population Division figures to place a person’s age among the roughly 8 billion people alive today. The data show a world that is getting older as fertility rates fall, a shift Al Jazeera said is putting pressure on pensions, health services and labour markets.
The interactive, published ahead of World Population Day on July 11, asks users to enter a date of birth and then calculates the share and number of people who are younger or older than them. Al Jazeera said the comparison can also be changed from the global population to individual countries, and users can project their position into future decades as populations age.
Al Jazeera gave the example of someone born on Jan. 1, 2000. That person, now in their mid-20s, is older than more than 44 percent of the world’s population, while in Japan the same person is younger than about three-quarters of the population, according to the analysis.
The typical person is getting older
UN figures cited by Al Jazeera show that the global median age has climbed sharply over the past half-century. In 1976, the median age was just under 21, when the world population stood at about 4.1 billion, according to the analysis.
Today, the median age is about 31, and the United Nations projects it will reach 36 by 2050, Al Jazeera reported. The median age means half the population is younger and half is older.
Al Jazeera identified falling fertility as the main driver of the shift. Demographers use the total fertility rate to estimate the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime at current birth rates, and the replacement level is generally put at about 2.1 births per woman, according to the report.
The global fertility rate is now about 2.2, down from roughly five in the 1960s, Al Jazeera reported, citing UN data. The United Nations expects the rate to reach replacement level around mid-century and continue declining after that.
More than half of countries are already below replacement level, including China, the United States, India, Japan and most of Europe, according to Al Jazeera’s analysis of UN figures. Over time, a rate below replacement means each generation is smaller than the one before it, unless migration or other factors offset the decline.
Population growth is slowing
Al Jazeera reported that the world’s population has grown from 2 billion in 1927 to more than 8 billion today. The analysis attributed much of that growth to modern medicine and the industrialisation of agriculture, which increased food supplies.
Even as the total population rises, demographic experts cited by Al Jazeera said the annual growth rate has fallen below 1 percent. The United Nations Population Division estimates the world will reach about 9.7 billion people by 2050 before growth stalls and later begins to reverse, according to the report.
The UN expects the global population to peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, Al Jazeera reported. By 2050, the 10 most populous countries are projected to be India, China, Nigeria, the United States, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Bangladesh.
India is projected to remain far ahead at about 1.7 billion people, while China is expected to fall to around 1.3 billion and continue shrinking, according to Al Jazeera’s summary of the UN projections.
This story draws on original reporting from Al Jazeera.