Study maps cascade risks in global cobalt battery supply chain
Researchers say cobalt disruptions can spread through trade and production links, exposing weak points in battery supply chains.
By Tom Brennan · Health & Medicine Correspondent
3 min read
A disruption at one point in the cobalt supply chain could spread across countries and production stages tied to electric vehicle batteries, according to researchers backed by the Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences. The finding matters for EVs and energy storage because cobalt remains a key material in many lithium-ion batteries.
The study, published in Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, examined how shocks can move through the global cobalt system rather than staying confined to a single country or industry. Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Peking University, the University of Southern Denmark and other institutions said traditional country-by-country assessments can miss these wider cascade risks.
Researchers modeled cobalt flows across 230 countries
The research team analyzed global cobalt flows from 1998 to 2019, according to the Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences. The model linked 230 countries across six stages of the cobalt life cycle, including mining, refining, manufacturing, use and recycling.
The researchers combined material flow analysis with a multilayer shock propagation model. That allowed them to simulate how a supply shortage or demand drop at one point could move through international trade links and domestic production chains.
According to the study, risks often begin in upstream mining areas, especially where production is concentrated. The most severe effects can appear later at refining and manufacturing links, where connections between production stages can amplify failures.
Hidden links made the failure network denser
The researchers found that the potential network of cascading failures was about four times denser than the underlying physical trade network. They said that result shows how supply-chain dependence can be hidden when analysts look only at direct trade relationships.
Shocks in the model moved through both direct and indirect routes, as well as across horizontal country-to-country links and vertical production-stage links. The study said those overlapping routes can create long chains of disruption and abrupt failures.
China and the United States showed high levels of systemic fragility in the analysis, according to the researchers. The study also found that some countries with smaller production volumes were highly exposed to random disruptions and had limited resilience.
Battery supply risks have risen over time
The research team said cobalt supply risks became more volatile and generally increased over the two-decade period studied. They linked that trend to growing concentration in parts of the supply chain and imbalances between supply and demand.
The authors described the cobalt network as “robust-yet-fragile,” meaning it can absorb many small random disruptions while remaining exposed to shocks at critical points. They said national stockpiles or production shifts may reduce exposure for one country while pushing risks elsewhere in the network.
The Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences said the results point to the need for coordinated strategies that account for links between upstream and downstream production. The researchers said the framework could support early-warning tools, shared stockpiling plans, diversification of refining and manufacturing capacity, and assessments of trade restrictions or economic decoupling.
Although the study focused on cobalt, the authors said the same modeling approach could be applied to other critical materials used in battery production and clean energy technologies.
This story draws on original reporting from ScienceDaily.