Jobless support linked to lower populist vote shares in Europe
A study of 16 Western European countries finds stronger labor market safety nets are associated with weaker support for populist parties.
By Tom Brennan · Health & Medicine Correspondent
3 min read
Stronger support for unemployed workers is linked to lower backing for populist parties in Western Europe, according to research by Chase Foster of King’s College London and Jeffry Frieden of Columbia University. The findings suggest that the design of labor market welfare can affect how economic insecurity feeds into voting behavior.
The study, published in European Union Politics, examined 134 national elections in 16 countries from 1990 to 2021. The researchers also used data from 11 waves of the European Social Survey to compare policy systems with political attitudes and election results.
Foster and Frieden studied measures such as unemployment insurance and public spending on programs that support people without work or help them return to jobs. According to King’s College London, countries that spent more on these policies tended to record smaller vote shares for populist parties.
The association held after the researchers accounted for several other factors, including unemployment levels, economic performance, immigration and industrial decline, King’s College London said. The study argues that targeted support for people facing job insecurity may ease some of the pressures that drive frustration with mainstream parties.
Cuts linked to higher populist support
The research also found that reductions in unemployment protection were associated with increased support for populist parties. Foster and Frieden pointed to austerity measures and welfare reforms introduced in several European countries since the early 2000s as possible contributors to political backlash among people exposed to economic insecurity.
The pattern was especially pronounced among people who had spent long periods out of work and among current or former trade union members, according to the study. The researchers said those groups may be more sensitive to changes in labor market protections because the policies directly affect their economic risk.
The authors did not argue that welfare policy alone explains Europe’s recent populist gains. They said support for populist parties is shaped by a mix of cultural concerns, economic change and views of political institutions.
Still, the study says social policy should be part of any account of recent political shifts. According to King’s College London, the findings indicate that protecting workers from economic disruption may reduce the grievances that populist movements often try to mobilize.
In comments released with the study, Foster and Frieden said their findings do not mean welfare states can eliminate populism. They said populist movements have appeared across nearly all OECD countries amid long-running economic and cultural changes tied to trade integration, technological change and immigration.
Those forces are unlikely to fade soon, the researchers said. But they added that national social policies can shape the political effects of these changes, and that economic insecurity remains a strong driver of political discontent.
The paper, “Compensation, austerity and populism: Labor market spending and voting in 16 Western European countries,” was published in 2026 in European Union Politics.
This story draws on original reporting from Phys.org.