Toyota narrows GM’s U.S. sales lead as hybrid demand grows
Cox Automotive expects Toyota’s first-half U.S. sales to edge higher while GM’s fall, putting the longtime sales leader under pressure.
By Hana Yoshida · Markets Reporter
3 min read
Toyota is closing the U.S. sales gap with General Motors, according to a Cox Automotive forecast released Wednesday. The shift matters because GM has held the top spot in American auto sales for most of the past century, while Toyota’s hybrid-heavy lineup is drawing buyers as electric-vehicle demand weakens.
Cox expects Toyota Motor to report U.S. sales of 1.25 million vehicles for the first half of the year, up nearly 1% from the same period last year. The firm projects GM sales will fall 7.2% to 1.33 million vehicles.
That would leave GM ahead by 83,255 vehicles through June, according to Cox. CNBC reported that the gap would be the smallest between the two automakers since Toyota outsold GM in the U.S. in 2021.
Hybrid strategy helps Toyota
Cox Automotive senior economist and senior director of industry insights Charlie Chesbrough said during a media event that GM could face a challenge from Toyota by year-end if current sales rates continue. Chesbrough said Cox is not forecasting Toyota to finish the year ahead of GM, but he described the trend as a concern for the Detroit automaker.
Toyota has kept expanding its model lineup, including electric vehicles, while continuing to rely heavily on hybrids, according to CNBC. The company has long been a leader in hybrids, a segment that Cox said is gaining momentum with U.S. consumers.
GM has placed more emphasis on all-electric vehicles and has often described hybrids as a bridge technology, CNBC reported. Its only hybrid model is a Corvette, while Cadillac offers a full EV lineup and other GM brands sell several electric models.
Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox Automotive’s director of industry insights, said hybrids are benefiting from a stronger moment in the market. Cox expects EV sales to drop 23.3% in the first half of the year.
GM’s long run at No. 1 faces pressure
Toyota’s only prior year as the top-selling automaker in the U.S. came in 2021, when pandemic-era supply chain problems disrupted production and sales, CNBC reported. Industry data cited by CNBC show GM has otherwise led U.S. auto sales since 1931.
After Toyota’s 2021 win, company chair Akio Toyoda said he celebrated the result, though Toyota executives said at the time that they did not expect the lead to last, according to CNBC.
Cox expects overall U.S. new-vehicle sales to fall 3% in the first half of the year from a year earlier. The firm also forecasts a 0.5% decline in second-quarter sales.
Honda, Volkswagen and Stellantis are expected to post second-quarter gains, according to Cox. The firm projects the steepest sales declines in the quarter for Tesla, Ford Motor and GM.
This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.