Summer box office puts Hollywood on track for $10 billion year
Strong ticket sales have narrowed the gap with 2019 and could lift the domestic box office above $10 billion for the first time in seven years.
By Maya Lindqvist · Senior Technology Correspondent
3 min read
Hollywood’s summer movie season is running close to pre-pandemic levels, giving studios and theater owners a clearer path to their first $10 billion domestic year since 2019. Rentrak data show the summer box office has reached $1.8 billion through Sunday, less than 2% below the same point in 2019.
The summer season, counted from the first weekend in May through Labor Day, is a key period for the industry because it typically supplies about 40% of yearly domestic ticket sales, according to Rentrak. Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at the movie data company, said the summer total is a major indicator of the industry’s broader health for the full year.
The early strength has come without the usual opening salvo of a superhero film or a major action franchise. According to Rentrak, Disney’s “The Devil Wears Prada 2,” Universal’s “Obsession,” A24’s “Backrooms” and Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic “Michael” have together generated nearly $850 million for the domestic summer market since May began.
Rentrak said that combined total is roughly in line with what Disney and Marvel’s “Avengers: Endgame” had contributed to the 2019 box office over the comparable stretch. Disney and Pixar added another lift with “Toy Story 5,” which opened to $160 million, the best debut in that franchise, according to the data cited by the company.
Holdover films are helping
Several movies have kept selling tickets beyond their opening weekends. Rentrak data show “Michael,” “Obsession” and Amazon MGM’s “Project Hail Mary,” which opened in March, have posted weekly declines of 20% to 40%, compared with the 50% to 70% drops often seen after a film’s first weekend.
“Obsession” has done better than hold steady. The Numbers reported that its domestic sales rose 39% in its second weekend and 14% in its third weekend, an unusual pattern that points to strong audience word of mouth.
Alex DelVecchio, general manager of Rutgers Cinema in Piscataway, New Jersey, said the release calendar has built momentum week after week. He pointed to a six-film run that includes “Toy Story 5,” “Supergirl,” “Minions,” “Moana,” “The Odyssey” and Spider-Man.
Dergarabedian said those films could push the summer domestic box office to $4.2 billion. Rentrak data show the summer box office has topped $4 billion only once since 2019, when “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” helped drive the 2023 season.
Big releases still ahead
The full-year domestic box office has reached $4.4 billion through Sunday, according to Rentrak. That trails 2019’s $5.2 billion at the same point by about 15%, but the gap has narrowed as summer sales have strengthened.
Upcoming releases could determine whether the year crosses $10 billion. Universal’s Christopher Nolan film “The Odyssey” is tracking for an opening weekend above $100 million and is expected to draw strong demand for premium large-format screenings, according to analysts cited by Rentrak.
Sony’s “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” made with Disney’s Marvel Studios, could open between $200 million and $250 million, according to some analyst forecasts. Dergarabedian said that release, set for July 31, could be the year’s biggest opening and help carry ticket sales into August, fall and the holiday period.
This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.