Study links early iPhone access to lower U.S. birth rates
An NBER working paper uses AT&T’s early iPhone rollout to examine whether smartphones helped push down fertility among young Americans.
By Maya Lindqvist · Senior Technology Correspondent
3 min read
A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research links early iPhone access in the U.S. to lower birth rates, especially among younger women. The finding adds a technology-driven explanation to a fertility decline that economists say continued even after the economy recovered from the Great Recession.
The paper found that, during the first four years after the iPhone’s 2007 launch, areas where the device was available saw births fall by 4.5% to 8% among people ages 15 to 19. For people ages 20 to 24, births declined by 3.2% to 6.6%, according to the study.
Caitlin Myers, a Middlebury College economics professor and co-author of the paper, told Fortune that births fell faster in places where consumers could buy the iPhone than in places where they could not. Myers wrote the paper with her son, Fortune reported.
The researchers used AT&T’s exclusive U.S. distribution deal for the iPhone as the basis for their comparison. From June 2007 to February 2011, AT&T was the only carrier selling the device, allowing the researchers to compare areas with access to the phone against areas where it was not yet sold.
According to Fortune, the study focused on that AT&T-only period. The researchers said the relationship between iPhone sales and lower fertility remained after accounting for factors including home prices and how urban or rural an area was.
U.S. fertility has been falling for nearly 20 years, and Fortune reported that the rate reached an all-time low in 2024. Economists initially tied the drop to the Great Recession, but Myers told Fortune the rebound that followed did not bring births back with it.
Lower fertility can create long-term economic strains, Fortune reported, including a smaller future workforce, weaker overall spending and added pressure on programs such as Social Security and Medicare as the population ages. Myers said housing costs, childcare costs and economic worry remain part of the story, but argued they do not explain the full decline.
The paper also points to changes in social life. Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth, the researchers found declines in peer activities outside work and school, along with a drop in how often people reported having sex, Fortune reported.
Fortune noted that psychologists including Jonathan Haidt and Jean Twenge have argued that heavier screen use among young people is associated with anxiety, depression and lower cognitive ability. Myers told Fortune that the same broad shift in technology use may help explain why people are connecting less in ways that lead to relationships and births.
Myers said the data also shows fewer teen pregnancies, which she described as a trend that can be positive in many cases. She told Fortune that more research could help policymakers preserve those gains while addressing possible damage to mental health and social connection.
“My answer, as an economist, is just here to measure the phenomenon,” Myers told Fortune. “My answer, as a human, is this could be cause for concern if it’s another signal that our phones are making us less happy.”
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.