Roubini says AI may force basic income or state stakes in tech
The economist told Bloomberg TV that automation could make today’s retirement fixes inadequate and push governments toward redistribution.
By Daniel Okafor · Business Editor
3 min read
Economist Nouriel Roubini says artificial intelligence could displace enough workers over the next two decades to force governments toward universal basic income or public ownership stakes in major technology firms. In a Bloomberg TV interview Friday, he said that outcome would be tied to rapid economic growth from AI rather than a collapse.
Roubini, known for warning about the 2008 financial crisis before it hit, was asked about Social Security as the trust fund that supports benefits is projected to run short of money by 2032. He argued that raising the retirement age would not answer the broader problem if robots and AI systems replace a large share of human labor over the next 20 to 25 years.
“Eventually, we need some form of universal basic income for everybody while they work and once they retire,” Roubini said on Bloomberg TV. “We’re already on the way.”
AI growth and redistribution
Roubini described AI as the most important technological shift in human history and said he expects it to develop into artificial general intelligence, a term used for systems that can match or surpass human cognitive abilities. He forecast that such technology could lift gross domestic product growth from 2% to 4% by the end of this decade, then to 6% by 2040 and 10% by 2050.
Under that scenario, Roubini said governments would have room to tax those who benefit most from AI and send money to people whose work is displaced. He framed one path as redistribution after profits are made through universal basic income, and another as redistribution before that through state involvement in companies.
“We’ll have either ex-post distribution—that is universal basic income—or we’ll have it ex-ante. Ex-ante means some form of socialism,” Roubini said. “Essentially, the government is going to take over some fraction of the big tech firms.”
Roubini pointed to a Financial Times report that said OpenAI had discussed giving the public a 5% stake so people could share in gains from AI. According to the report, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s idea would call for other AI companies to offer similar stakes, though it remains unclear whether U.S. competitors would agree.
UBI remains in the policy debate
Universal basic income has drawn attention from technology executives and policymakers as AI tools become more capable. Altman has previously floated the idea of a guaranteed payment from governments, though Business Insider reported he later moved away from that position.
In the United Kingdom, the minister for investment said earlier this year that the government was considering universal basic income to help workers in sectors where AI could threaten jobs, according to Fortune. Roubini told Bloomberg TV that he believes the world is already moving toward either basic income or a form of socialism.
Pressed on whether that was a bleak forecast, Roubini rejected the label. He said the outlook was optimistic because it assumes 10% growth and machines performing the work.
His view overlaps with predictions from Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX. Musk said on the People by WTF podcast in December that AI and robotics could make paid work optional in less than 20 years, comparing it to growing vegetables at home when stores already sell them.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.