Political ad spending for 2026 is projected to set a U.S. election record
AdImpact estimates the 2026 midterms will draw $11.6 billion in advertising, topping both the 2024 presidential cycle and prior midterms.
By Daniel Okafor · Business Editor
3 min read
Political advertising for the 2026 midterm elections is on pace to become the costliest U.S. election ad cycle on record, according to advertising intelligence firm AdImpact. The forecast matters for campaigns and media companies because spending is arriving earlier than usual and is concentrated in several expensive state-level contests.
AdImpact projects $11.6 billion in political ad spending tied to 2026 races. That would exceed the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential election cycle, when Donald Trump ran against Kamala Harris, and would stand well above the prior midterm record of $8.9 billion in 2022.
The firm’s latest estimate is $795 million higher than its earlier projection made last year. If the new forecast is reached, 2026 spending would be about 30% above the last midterm cycle, according to AdImpact.
Early spending is running ahead of 2024
AdImpact said political ad spending had reached $4 billion through June 1. That is 46% higher than spending at the same stage of the 2024 presidential cycle, the firm said.
The increase is being driven by a group of major contests that emerged earlier than is typical, according to AdImpact. The firm pointed to high-cost races in California, Texas, Michigan and Ohio among the largest contributors to overall spending.
Republicans control both chambers of Congress, raising the stakes for the midterm fight. Michigan, Ohio and Texas have competitive Senate races, while California has a costly governor’s race, according to AdImpact.
Broadcast remains the largest category
AdImpact expects broadcast television to receive $5.6 billion in 2026 political ad spending. The firm projects $1.4 billion for cable, $2.6 billion for connected TV and $1.68 billion for digital advertising.
Broadcast TV still accounts for nearly half of total projected spending, AdImpact said, with state races driving much of that total. Political advertising is a major revenue source for media companies, especially local station owners in competitive states.
Campaigns and political groups are also putting more money into digital platforms. AdImpact expects about $1.6 billion in spending across digital outlets including Facebook, Google, Snapchat and X.
Senate and governor races fuel the totals
Senate races are projected to draw nearly $3.4 billion, according to AdImpact. The firm said the Texas Senate primary is among the most expensive contests in that category.
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, while Democrats hold 45. The chamber’s two independents caucus with Democrats.
Governor races are also pushing the cycle higher. AdImpact said three of the four most expensive gubernatorial contests on record are taking place in 2026, in California, New Jersey and Georgia.
Spending further down the ballot is expected to break its own record as well. AdImpact projects it will surpass the $3.2 billion mark set in 2022.
The heaviest spending stretch is still ahead, according to AdImpact. The firm said August through November typically accounts for 58% to 67% of all political ad spending in a cycle, with October alone representing 28% to 36% as Election Day approaches.
This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.