Osasuna denies placing Kalshi bet tied to relegation risk

Club Atlético Osasuna has denied placing a roughly $600,000 wager on Kalshi tied to whether it would be relegated from Spain’s top soccer league, Fortune reported. The dispute has put new attention on how prediction markets may be used as financial hedges in sports, where incentives to lose can raise integrity concerns.

The controversy followed a Semafor report that the Spanish club had bet against itself to soften the financial damage of possible relegation from LaLiga, according to Fortune. Osasuna was scheduled to face Getafe FC on May 23, and Fortune reported that a loss could have affected the club’s league position and broadcast income.

Fortune reported that a Kalshi market asked traders whether Osasuna would be relegated from LaLiga in the 2025-2026 season. Trading rose to nearly 3.5 million contracts, with the total value of bets reaching $591,600, according to Fortune.

Osasuna told Fortune that it had not placed bets on Kalshi, had not taken part in prediction markets and had no direct relationship with Kalshi or any similar platform. The club said it had bought a €1.2 million relegation-risk insurance policy from Howden, an international insurance broker, according to Fortune.

Fortune reported that Osasuna released documents showing its Howden contract and showing that LaLiga had been told about the arrangement. Howden did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment on whether it placed the Kalshi trade.

Kalshi says a broker used its market

A Kalshi spokesperson told Fortune that Osasuna bought insurance from a broker and that the broker passed along the risk through Kalshi. The spokesperson said clubs have bought relegation insurance for decades and that the broker used Kalshi because its pricing was more favorable than traditional reinsurance, according to Fortune.

Karl Lockhart, a DePaul University law professor who studies prediction markets, told Fortune that insurance for sports risks is common. He said players can insure themselves against injury risks and that insurers often write policies for unusual exposures when clients ask for protection.

Osasuna lost 1-0 to Getafe, Fortune reported. The club still avoided relegation because the teams below it did not gain enough points to pass it, leaving the insurer without a €1.2 million payout obligation, according to Fortune.

Lockhart told Fortune that the legal picture is complicated because state gambling rules and major sports leagues restrict players from betting on games, while Kalshi operates under a federal framework overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He said a direct financial hedge against winning can conflict with what fans expect from sports competition.

Kalshi said Tuesday that some users will have to disclose their employer before trading in markets it views as more vulnerable to manipulation, Fortune reported. David Gouker, author of the gambling and prediction-markets newsletter Next Event Horizon, told Fortune that the Osasuna episode may be an early example of real-world risk being shifted through a prediction market.

Spain’s Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and 2030 Agenda opened disciplinary proceedings against Kalshi and Polymarket three days after the Getafe match, Fortune reported. The ministry accused the platforms of operating without a Spanish license and ordered temporary nationwide website blocks while the matter is pending.

A ministry spokesperson told Fortune that the Kalshi action was unrelated to Osasuna. The spokesperson said the investigation began before the soccer controversy and that the blocking order was part of a monthly process sent to Spain’s major internet providers, according to Fortune.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.