GLP-1 drugs put food demand and climate exposure on investors’ radar
Tenzin Seldon says weight-loss drugs are cutting demand for high-emission foods, with possible effects on food sales, farms and emissions.
By Daniel Okafor · Business Editor
3 min read
GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are altering what many Americans buy and eat, and venture investor Tenzin Seldon says the shift could become a material climate and food-market force. In a Fortune commentary, Seldon argued that reduced appetite from the drugs is already affecting demand for some carbon-intensive foods.
Seldon, founder and managing partner of climate-focused Pulse Fund, pointed to late-2025 data showing about one in eight U.S. adults reported using a GLP-1 medication for weight loss, roughly twice the share from the prior year. She framed that adoption as a demand-side change in the food system rather than a climate policy story.
Food spending and calorie intake are falling among users
GLP-1 medications such as semaglutide and tirzepatide act on appetite signals between the gut and brain. Seldon cited clinical trial results showing average body-weight reductions of about 15% and peer-reviewed research from Cornell University and Numerator finding that adults on the drugs consume about 21% fewer calories and spend roughly 5% to 6% less on groceries.
Financial firms have started to estimate the potential sales effect. According to Seldon, JPMorgan projects the trend could remove $30 billion to $55 billion in annual U.S. food and beverage sales by 2030, when it expects about 25 million Americans to be using the drugs, up from about 10 million now. Goldman Sachs estimates nearly 70 million users by 2035, or around one in five adults, she wrote.
Why the emissions argument centers on meat
Seldon’s climate case rests on the emissions profile of food production. She wrote that food accounts for about one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, with animal-based foods responsible for more than half of food-related emissions. Beef has a carbon footprint about 60 times that of beans, she noted.
According to Seldon, GLP-1 users do not cut all foods evenly. She said clinical data show reductions falling heavily on red meat, ultra-processed snacks and sugary drinks, categories she described as among the more climate-intensive or less nutritionally favored parts of the American diet.
She also cited research modeling a broad U.S. dietary shift toward less red meat and sugar, which found food-system emissions could fall by 22% to 32%. Seldon argued that the speed of this consumption change has outpaced what climate policy has achieved in shifting food demand.
Food companies and farms face knock-on effects
Seldon said large food manufacturers are already adjusting products for GLP-1 users, including smaller serving sizes, more protein and lower levels of sugar and refined starch. She linked those changes to a possible shift in food supply toward lower-emission ingredients.
She also pointed to farm-level signals, including softer projections for corn and soybean planting and a U.S. cattle herd at a 75-year low, citing USDA data. Less overall food consumption could also reduce waste, she wrote, noting that food-system waste accounts for about 700 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent each year.
Seldon cautioned that the thesis has clear risks. Adoption could level off because of cost, access, side effects or difficulty staying on treatment; food companies could design new ultra-processed products for GLP-1 users; and agricultural production can take time to contract. She also noted that one year of low cattle inventory does not establish a long-term trend.
Her conclusion was aimed at investors: demand for food, especially high-emission food, may be changing for reasons outside climate policy. Seldon said investors who view GLP-1s only as a weight-loss trend may miss the broader repricing across food, agriculture and climate-linked markets.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.