Europe’s heat deaths rival U.S. gun tolls, but the comparison is messy

A viral comparison between European heat deaths and U.S. gun deaths is broadly supported by raw totals, but data scientist Hannah Ritchie says the chart behind it mixes unlike measures. The debate comes as Europe faces another severe heat episode, exposing the limits of housing and public infrastructure built for cooler summers.

The UK Met Office and the World Meteorological Organization have put an 86% chance on at least one year from now through 2030 surpassing 2024 as the hottest year ever measured. Fortune reported that 2026 is already tracking among the four warmest years on record and would be the fourth straight year above 1.4 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels.

Heat is already taking a toll

Fortune reported that parts of France have exceeded 108 degrees Fahrenheit, while southern Spain has recorded temperatures above 113 degrees. The UK, Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland and Luxembourg have issued top-level red heat alerts, according to the same report.

At least 40 people have drowned since last Thursday, and French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu linked those deaths to people seeking relief in unsupervised rivers and lakes, Fortune reported. In France, at least 18 additional deaths have been tied directly to heat, including two toddlers found unresponsive in a hot car in Carpentras and three elderly people near Bordeaux, according to Fortune.

Scientists cited by Fortune say a developing El Niño is affecting atmospheric circulation in Europe, with some models pointing to a possible strong El Niño heading into 2027. The report said researchers still view human-caused climate change as the main long-term driver of rising temperatures.

What the comparison shows

Heat waves killed about 24,400 people across Europe in 2025, with 16,500 of those deaths attributed directly to climate change, according to Scientific American figures cited by Fortune. The prior year, more than 62,700 Europeans died from heat-related causes, according to the same account.

In the United States, gun deaths totaled 44,447 in 2024, according to CDC data cited by Pew Research Center. The Trace reported that the U.S. gun death total fell to roughly 38,700 in 2025.

Ritchie, who writes the By the Numbers Substack, said the viral chart’s basic takeaway holds in absolute terms, but its method is flawed. She wrote that European heat deaths are generally estimated through excess-death models, which count deaths brought forward by hot conditions, including deaths involving cardiovascular disease, stroke and respiratory failure.

Ritchie said the U.S. heat figure used in the comparison relied on death certificates, a narrower method that counts cases where heat was listed as a cause. She also said the chart used European Union gun-death figures while using a wider definition of Europe for heat deaths.

To make the comparison more consistent, Ritchie used excess-death modeling for the United States and averaged Europe’s 2022, 2023 and 2024 heat-death estimates: 67,873, 50,798 and 62,775. She concluded that the overall claim changes little by total deaths, but that U.S. gun deaths are slightly higher when both measures are converted to rates per 100,000 people.

Cooling gap sharpens the risk

The International Energy Agency says about 20% of European homes have air conditioning, compared with roughly 90% of U.S. households. Fortune reported that many northern European homes were designed to retain heat, leaving residents more exposed as extreme summer temperatures become more common.

Extreme weather, including heat waves, cost European economies nearly $50 billion last year, Fortune reported. A Johns Hopkins analysis found that firearm-related homicide and suicide rates for Americans under 25 are nearly 486 times higher than in the UK, underscoring Ritchie’s broader point that both regions tolerate preventable deaths in different ways.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.