England records zero cervical cancer deaths in women ages 20 to 24
A Lancet study links England’s HPV vaccine program to sharp mortality declines, while U.S. uptake remains below federal goals.
By Sofia Marchetti · World Affairs Correspondent
3 min read
England recorded no cervical cancer deaths among women ages 20 to 24 from 2020 through 2024, a milestone researchers tied to high HPV vaccination rates. The finding matters because it offers national-level evidence that vaccination against human papillomavirus can reduce deaths from a cancer largely caused by the virus.
The data come from a study published June 17 in The Lancet by Queen Mary University of London researchers Peter Sasieni and Milena Falcaro. The researchers reviewed cervical cancer mortality in England from 2001 to 2024 among women ages 20 to 34, comparing recorded deaths with expected deaths based on rates before HPV vaccination was introduced.
According to the study, the 2020-2024 total for women ages 20 to 24 represented a 100% drop from historical expectations. Without vaccination, researchers estimated that about 23 women in that age group would have died of cervical cancer during that period.
Vaccination coverage in that cohort was about 88% to 90% at ages 12 to 13, the researchers reported. In groups with lower coverage, deaths also fell: mortality was down 80% among women ages 20 to 24 in 2014-2019 and 69% among women ages 25 to 29 in 2020-2024.
Queen Mary University of London said Sasieni credited England’s school-based vaccination and catch-up programs for the result. He also said the program has probably prevented nearly 200 deaths among young women in England since it began, with more avoided deaths expected as vaccinated groups age.
The researchers cautioned that zero deaths in one age band does not mean cervical cancer has been eliminated. They said the result was likely a chance outcome made possible by a much lower underlying death rate.
U.S. uptake remains lower
The Lancet paper also cited U.S. evidence suggesting HPV vaccination is reducing deaths there, though vaccination coverage is lower. A separate U.S. analysis found 31 cervical cancer deaths among women under 25 from 2016 to 2021, which was 26 fewer than projected from earlier trends, according to the study.
KFF, the health policy research group, says about 61% of U.S. adolescents ages 13 to 17 have completed the HPV vaccine series. That trails coverage for the meningococcal vaccine at 88.4% and Tdap at 89%, according to KFF, which also says HPV vaccine initiation has stalled for three straight years and remains lower in rural areas.
The U.S. government has set a goal of 80% HPV vaccination coverage by 2030. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the U.S. health secretary, is now responsible for that target after years of public criticism of Gardasil, Merck’s HPV vaccine, according to reports cited by Fortune.
During his Senate confirmation hearing, Kennedy declined to say the HPV vaccine was safe when asked by Sen. Patty Murray, and he did not withdraw his earlier description of Gardasil as dangerous and defective, according to hearing accounts cited by Fortune. Fortune also reported that Kennedy has received referral fees tied to litigation against Merck over Gardasil marketing claims.
Since taking office, Kennedy has dismissed the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee, replaced it with vaccine skeptics, pledged to investigate the childhood vaccine schedule and pushed out the FDA’s top vaccine regulator after a dispute over access to vaccine safety data, Fortune reported.
The World Health Organization estimates HPV caused about 620,000 cancers in women and 70,000 in men in 2019. The CDC estimates HPV causes about 39,300 cancers each year in the United States, nearly all of which are preventable with the 9-valent Gardasil vaccine.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.