Climate goals increasingly tied to growth and security choices

Governments are under growing pressure to make climate policy work alongside economic growth and strategic independence, according to Sebastian Buckup, managing director at the World Economic Forum. In a Fortune commentary, Buckup argued that leaders can no longer treat emissions cuts as a goal separate from industrial policy, energy security and competitiveness.

Buckup described a three-way policy test involving growth, autonomy and sustainability. He said governments often assume they can advance only two of those aims at a time, but the next decade will test whether countries can make all three reinforce each other.

Energy security is changing climate choices

Buckup pointed to several countries where energy security and affordability are shaping climate decisions. He wrote that Canada’s Energy Minister Tim Hodgson, serving under Prime Minister Mark Carney, has defended Canada’s role as a major fossil-fuel producer on security and cost grounds.

He also cited Mexico, where President Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist, has supported developing new shale oil and gas reserves for similar reasons. China, despite its large role in clean-energy manufacturing, is adding coal-fired power generation to protect domestic supply and support industrial demand, Buckup wrote.

Those cases show how sustainability targets can lose priority when governments put economic stability and energy sovereignty first, according to Buckup. He said the reverse problem also exists: policies that favor decarbonization and growth can leave countries dependent on outside suppliers.

Europe’s expansion of renewables has cut emissions and opened industrial opportunities, Buckup wrote, but it has also exposed limited domestic capacity in solar panels, batteries and critical minerals. He said dependence on concentrated supply chains has raised concerns about resilience and strategic vulnerability.

Europe’s energy shock shows the trade-offs

Buckup said Europe’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine showed how pursuing autonomy and sustainability can put pressure on growth. Moves to reduce reliance on Russian fossil fuels and speed up renewable deployment raised energy costs and weighed on industrial competitiveness in the short term, he wrote.

Other advanced economies face related cost pressures when they try to build more self-sufficiency, according to Buckup. He said such efforts can require large public investment and may cost more than supply chains built mainly around global efficiency.

Still, Buckup argued that these trade-offs can change over time. Countries with strong institutions, fiscal capacity and stable long-term policy plans are better positioned to invest early in clean technologies and infrastructure, he wrote.

He cited Spain as one example. Buckup wrote that roughly 75% of Spain’s electricity now comes from low-carbon sources, helping reduce emissions while lowering energy costs for households and businesses. He said Spain’s wholesale electricity prices are about one-third below the European Union average, reducing exposure to gas-price shocks.

China offers another model, Buckup wrote, with state-led industrial policy making clean-energy technologies a central part of growth. He said clean-energy technologies accounted for about one-third of China’s GDP growth in 2025, while the country’s continued coal use shows its policy tensions remain.

In India, Buckup wrote, non-fossil sources now make up about half of installed electricity capacity, five years ahead of the country’s 2030 target. He said the buildout is driven by cost, speed and energy security as well as climate goals, though coal remains dominant in India’s energy mix.

Buckup said companies are also adjusting as climate, industrial and security policies converge. Businesses that change supply chains and energy strategies early may be better placed as investment patterns shift, he argued.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.