Climate-driven drought risks could push water bills higher
A study of Santa Cruz, California, finds hotter, drier conditions could force costly water projects and raise household bills by 2050.
By Daniel Okafor · Business Editor
3 min read
Climate change could make water service more expensive in drought-prone cities by forcing utilities to pay for new supplies and infrastructure. A study published Wednesday in Nature Sustainability found that Santa Cruz, California, could see median household water bills rise sharply by 2050 under hotter and drier conditions.
The research found that Santa Cruz’s median monthly household water bill could climb from $64 to as much as $120 by midcentury. The study tied that increase to the cost of expanding the local water system as climate change strains existing sources.
The analysis differs from standard water-rate projections, according to the researchers, because it focuses on costs linked to climate change rather than extending past pricing trends into the future. Bloomberg reported that water costs in the U.S. have already been rising faster than overall consumer prices.
Sarah Fletcher, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University and a co-author of the paper, said cities with similar exposure to water stress could face increases beyond current expectations. Fletcher said the study looked at affordability for individual households, not just systemwide costs.
Why Santa Cruz is exposed
The researchers chose Santa Cruz because its water supply is unusually vulnerable to dry periods, according to the study. Unlike some California cities that bring in water from elsewhere, Santa Cruz depends on local rainfall, and the city says its only reservoir can hold about one year of demand.
The city has also already cut demand through measures including limits on lawn watering and moves toward more efficient appliances, according to the researchers. That reduces the room for cheaper fixes that rely mainly on persuading customers to use less water.
Fletcher said Santa Cruz may therefore need more expensive long-term projects to increase supply. The study cited options such as desalination, which turns seawater into drinking water, and wastewater recycling; without government assistance, those costs would be passed on to customers through higher rates.
Santa Cruz did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the research, according to Bloomberg. In a June water management plan, the city listed supply projects including storing treated surface water in an aquifer and building pipeline links with nearby water districts so systems can move water during dry periods.
Affordability pressure
The study found that 20% of Santa Cruz households already spend more on water than an Environmental Protection Agency affordability benchmark indicates they should. Under hot and dry conditions that require more infrastructure, that share could rise to 35%, according to the researchers.
Fletcher said lower-income households would face the greatest strain because they have less flexibility in their budgets to absorb higher utility bills. The study adds water bills to a broader set of household costs that researchers and policymakers have linked to climate-related extreme weather, including food and insurance.
The findings point to a growing cost problem for communities that must keep drinking-water systems reliable as drought risk rises. For Santa Cruz, the study suggests the bill for adapting the water system could increasingly show up in monthly household charges.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.