Brookings AI job-risk map points to anxiety in Democratic cities

A Brookings Institution analysis of workers exposed to artificial intelligence found that many of the highest-risk counties lean Democratic, a pattern Fortune linked to Zohran Mamdani’s political strength in New York. The finding matters for Democrats because it points to economic anxiety among urban, white-collar voters who have been central to the party’s coalition.

Brookings researchers Mark Muro, Todd Jones and Shriya Methkupally reported this month that 62 of the 100 U.S. counties with the highest AI exposure voted Democratic in 2024. The authors did not claim that AI exposure caused any political outcome, according to Fortune, but they flagged the concentration of exposure in blue counties as a possible source of future tension.

AI risk concentrated in blue counties

Fortune reported that New York County, which covers Manhattan, ranks among the country’s most exposed counties in the Brookings analysis. The paper found that 14% to 19% of workers there are in occupations where AI is already able to automate tasks, rather than only assist workers.

The Brookings method used actual activity data from Anthropic’s Claude models, according to Fortune. Brookings weighted full automation more heavily than human-AI collaboration, making the measure more focused on possible job displacement than on productivity gains.

The occupations highlighted in the Brookings work are heavily represented in urban office economies. Fortune said the paper identified higher AI involvement in educated, office-based work such as research, software coding, presentation drafting, analysis and marketing content.

Brookings found that the 62 Democratic-voting counties among the top 100 for AI exposure account for 75% of the population in that high-exposure group. Fortune also cited a separate academic study saying Democrats are more likely than Republicans both to use AI and to work in jobs with higher exposure to it.

Mamdani’s coalition draws new attention

Fortune connected the Brookings findings to the political rise of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist. Fortune reported that Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo in the previous year’s mayoral race and that candidates he backed later beat established Democratic incumbents in several congressional districts.

At least a dozen candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America won statewide, according to Fortune. The results added pressure on the Democratic establishment to account for Mamdani’s influence beyond his own mayoral campaign.

Fortune reported that Mamdani has argued the Democratic Party has lost sight of working people. In Fortune’s analysis, that message may also appeal to educated urban workers worried that AI could weaken their job security, even if those voters do not fit older images of industrial working-class politics.

Brookings named several high-exposure Democratic areas as possible political pressure points, according to Fortune, including Jefferson County near Denver, Hennepin County in the Minneapolis area and King County around Seattle. At the state level, Brookings put Massachusetts, New York, California and Washington, D.C., in a 13% to 17% worker-exposure range.

Researchers caution against simple conclusions

Brookings cautioned that exposure to AI does not mean jobs will necessarily disappear, Fortune reported. Fortune also cited separate research finding that AI adoption can create jobs and draw educated workers who tend to vote Democratic.

CBS News reported that support for democratic socialism is rising across the United States, with Mamdani’s election cited as one marker, according to Fortune. Fortune also reported that some House Democrats are worried about the pull of Mamdani’s coalition on the party, especially as Arizona and Georgia, which Brookings ranks among the 15 most AI-exposed states, head toward midterm elections.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.