Russian gains slow in Ukraine as June casualties near 40,000, Kyiv says

Russia’s ground campaign in Ukraine has slowed sharply this year while its reported losses have climbed, according to the Institute for the Study of War and Ukrainian military figures. The shift matters because Moscow is still seeking to capture the rest of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, a goal Kyiv says Russia has repeatedly missed.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, which tracks battlefield control using geolocated open-source material, said Russian forces took 622 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory in the first six months of 2026. In the same period of 2025, the think tank said, Russia captured 2,190 square kilometres.

That puts Russia’s average advance this year at 1.03 square kilometres a day, compared with 16.6 square kilometres a day in the first half of 2025, according to the ISW figures. If Russian infiltrations that do not amount to secure control are excluded and Ukrainian counter-advances are counted, ISW assessed Russia’s net gain in the first half of 2026 at 97 square kilometres.

Ukraine’s military estimated that Russia suffered 39,490 casualties in June. ISW said that translated to 1,298 Russian casualties for each square kilometre taken that month, compared with 68 casualties per square kilometre in June 2025.

The Center for Strategic International Studies estimated on July 1 that Russia has suffered 1.4 million casualties since the full-scale war began. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cited that figure while warning Russians not yet mobilised that continued fighting would bring more losses.

Ukraine points to drones and strikes on logistics

Zelenskyy has credited Ukraine’s improved position to decisions made last year to expand drone production and develop domestic long-range missiles. Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has described Kyiv’s campaign against Russian supply routes as “Logistical Lockdown”.

According to ISW, Ukrainian mid-range strikes on Russian logistics targets rose from 210 in May to 303 in June. Those targets included warehouses, supply convoys and bridges, the think tank said.

On June 25, Zelenskyy announced a 40-day campaign of medium- and long-range strikes against Russia aimed at pressuring Moscow to end the war. Ukraine said it destroyed 12 electricity substations in southern Crimea on July 1 and 2 as part of a wider effort to limit the peninsula’s military use by Russia.

Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, wrote on Telegram that his units hit a Russian target on or behind the front line every 52 seconds in June. He said 50,147 military targets were destroyed or damaged.

Moscow signals interest in US mediation

Russian officials have also discussed possible diplomacy with Washington. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told TASS on June 26 that US proposals discussed in Alaska had been accepted by Russia, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow remained open to US mediation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected Ukrainian proposals for ceasefires covering long-range strikes and several northern and southern regions, according to his comments to Vesti reporter Pavel Zarubin. Putin said Russia’s deep strikes into Ukraine were more destructive and had serious consequences for Kyiv.

Ukraine’s long-range strikes over the past week damaged several Russian oil refineries, satellite communications centres near Moscow, ships under construction in the Kerch Strait, an ammunition maker in Volgograd, the Saky military airfield in Crimea and a Penza-region research institute, according to Ukrainian accounts cited in the reporting.

Fuel pressure inside Russia

Russia depends on oil exports for about a quarter of budget revenue, according to recent analysis cited in the report. Vladyslav Vlasyuk, Ukraine’s presidential commissioner for sanctions policy, said Russian oil revenue fell 30 percent from January to May compared with the same period last year.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on June 26 that Russia had enough fuel on the market and blamed a 20 to 30 percent demand increase on “hype”. Putin said Russia had 1.7 million tonnes of gasoline reserves, down 4 percent from a year earlier.

Russia has banned diesel exports, and Putin extended that ban on June 26, according to TASS. Industry sources told Reuters that Russia had imported 60,000 tonnes of refined petroleum products from India and planned to import 400,000 tonnes a month from various countries.

This story draws on original reporting from Al Jazeera.