Tuition consumed 43% of median family income in 2020, analysis says
University of Arkansas scholar Thomas Adam says stagnant family income, more than recent tuition spikes, explains the affordability squeeze.
By Hana Yoshida · Markets Reporter
3 min read
College tuition took up 43% of median family income in 2020, up from about 14% in 1980, according to an analysis by University of Arkansas political scientist Thomas Adam. Adam says the shift helps explain why families feel squeezed even though tuition growth has slowed compared with earlier decades.
Adam, a historian of higher education, analyzed tuition trends from 1840 to 2020 and discussed the findings in The Conversation. He argues that the sharpest long-term change in affordability came as tuition kept rising while median family income grew far more slowly after 1980.
Debt burden has grown
The pressure comes as more families question the value of a four-year degree, Adam wrote. He cited data showing average college tuition more than tripled between 1980 and 2022, with much of that rise coming after 2000.
Adam also noted that the full cost of attendance, including housing, food, books and other expenses, can reach $100,000 a year at some institutions for students without scholarships or financial aid. He named Brown University, Tulane University, the University of Richmond and Williams College among schools where total annual costs can reach that level.
Student borrowing has expanded alongside those costs, according to figures Adam cited. More than half of undergraduate students took out student loans in 2025, compared with about one-quarter in 1995 and 1996.
Cumulative student loan debt rose from about $500 billion in 2006 to nearly $1.8 trillion in 2024, Adam wrote, citing education data. He also cited research linking student debt to delayed home and car purchases and decisions about marriage and children.
A longer view of tuition
Adam said most available tuition statistics track only the period since 1963, leaving out more than a century of earlier changes. To address that gap, he assembled tuition data in 10-year intervals for 667 public and private colleges and universities established before 1920.
That group represents 64% of colleges and universities founded before 1920, according to Adam. He said he is working to publish the database in an academic journal and has already published related findings in the journal History of Universities.
From 1840 to 1910, inflation-adjusted tuition stayed fairly level, Adam found. Average annual tuition ranged from $41 to $59 at the time, equal to about $1,586 to $2,194 today.
Adam said some colleges charged no tuition during that era. The number of tuition-free colleges rose from one in 1840 to 119 in 1910, including 100 public institutions and 19 private institutions.
Income failed to keep pace
Adam’s analysis shows tuition increases accelerated in the 20th century. He found tuition grew about 150% to 190% per decade from the 1920s through the 1950s, then about 220% in each of the 1960s and 1970s.
The 1980s brought the fastest increase in Adam’s study, with tuition rising 241% over the decade. Average tuition climbed from $2,686 to $6,467 during that period, according to his data.
After that, Adam found, tuition growth slowed. It fell to 180% in the 1990s and 142% in the 2010s, the lowest rate since the 1910s.
Adam’s conclusion is that affordability worsened mainly because family income failed to match tuition growth. He wrote that tuition and median family income rose more closely together before 1980, keeping tuition at about 14% of median family income, before the share reached 43% in 2020.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.