Trip.com cofounder warns low birth rates could sap innovation

China’s birth rate has fallen to its lowest level since 1949, adding pressure to a demographic shift that Trip.com cofounder James Liang says could slow innovation. Liang told Fortune that aging economies need larger younger populations to sustain research, technological progress and human control over new systems.

China recorded 5.63 births per 1,000 people last year, Fortune reported, citing BBC figures. Fortune also reported that current projections put China’s population below 1.25 billion by mid-century.

Liang, chairman and cofounder of Trip.com Group, has long argued that population policy is tied to economic strength. In a Fortune interview earlier this year, he said countries with shrinking populations risk losing both the capacity to innovate and the ability to direct innovation.

Birth rates are falling across Asia

Fortune reported that Liang was a critic of China’s former one-child policy, which Beijing loosened to allow two children in 2015 before ending the limit in 2021. Liang’s argument now extends beyond China, as several Asian economies face fertility rates below the 2.1 births per woman generally associated with population stability.

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are entering what Fortune described as “super-aged” status, with more than one-fifth of residents older than 65. Fortune reported that Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines have also dropped below replacement level, while Al Jazeera has reported India’s fertility rate at about 1.9 births per woman.

Liang told Fortune that the decline has become a global issue, saying that last year two-thirds of the world’s population lived in countries with fertility rates below replacement level. Fortune reported that the world population is not expected to peak until 2100.

Policy fixes remain uncertain

Governments in Asia have tried to lift birth rates through measures including longer parental leave, child-care support, cash bonuses and even local dating events, according to Fortune. South Korea’s fertility rate has risen for two years, moving from 0.72 births per woman in 2023 to 0.80 in 2025, Fortune reported, citing The Guardian.

Liang told Fortune those steps do not go far enough. He estimated that spending equal to 1% of gross domestic product on family policies lifts fertility by only 0.1 births per woman, meaning China or South Korea would need spending equal to about 10% of GDP to move near replacement level.

Liang supports cash payments, subsidized daycare, flexible work, legalized surrogacy and lower academic pressure, according to Fortune. He told Fortune that highly competitive exam systems in China and South Korea can discourage family formation by raising anxiety and delaying young adults’ plans.

Trip.com has adopted its own family policies, according to company announcements cited by Fortune. The company has offered pregnant employees free taxi rides, education stipends for new parents, fertility-treatment subsidies, a 10,000 yuan annual payment for each newborn until age five, and expanded child-care leave for parents of children up to 18.

Economists dispute the link to growth

Liang’s view is contested. A June 24 paper by economists including Daron Acemoglu and David Autor found that lower birth rates were associated with higher GDP growth per working-age adult and did not affect total GDP, Fortune reported.

The economists wrote that places with lower birth rates showed more labor-saving patents and high-tech activity. Fortune reported that they argued smaller younger populations can push companies toward technologies that reduce labor needs.

Harvard economist Claudia Goldin has pointed to unequal household labor as another factor in falling fertility, according to Fortune. In a March paper, Goldin argued that women often take on more burdens at home after entering the workforce, prompting some to delay children until household duties become more balanced.

Liang rejected the idea that women should leave work, telling Fortune the answer is to give women more money and time. He also said men should take more responsibility for raising children.

Liang’s concerns also extend to artificial intelligence. He told Fortune that AI could help families if it saves labor and frees time, but he warned that it could also weaken entry-level job prospects for young people and make them less willing to have children.

Liang said a smaller population could push societies to hand more decisions to AI systems. His central concern, according to Fortune, is that fewer people could mean fewer workers, fewer researchers and less human judgment in the technologies shaping the economy.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.