Le Pen widens polling lead after court clears path to French race
An Elabe survey put Marine Le Pen well ahead for France’s 2027 election after appeal judges shortened a ban on her standing.
By Maya Lindqvist · Senior Technology Correspondent
3 min read
Marine Le Pen has widened her lead in a French presidential preference poll after appeal judges cleared the way for her to run next year. The result gives the far-right National Rally leader fresh momentum after a court ruling removed an immediate obstacle to a fourth presidential bid.
An Elabe poll for BFM TV and La Tribune Dimanche found Le Pen would take between 34% and 35.5% in the first round if the vote were held this Sunday. The survey of 1,503 adults showed her up 3 percentage points from a March poll, according to Bloomberg.
France’s presidential election is scheduled for next April, with a runoff set for May 2. Elabe conducted the online survey on Thursday and Friday and gave a margin of error ranging from 1.4 to 3.1 percentage points.
Centrist rivals trail in tested matchups
Elabe tested six possible first-round scenarios. Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, a centrist who served under President Emmanuel Macron, was Le Pen’s closest rival and reached as much as 19% in one of those lineups.
Jean-Luc Melenchon, the far-left France Unbowed leader, placed behind Philippe in most of the scenarios. Elabe found one exception in a lineup that also included Gabriel Attal, another centrist former prime minister.
The same poll found Le Pen defeating Philippe, Melenchon and Attal in potential second-round contests. French presidential elections move to a runoff between the top two first-round finishers if no candidate wins outright.
Bernard Sananes, the head of Elabe, told Bloomberg that Le Pen now leads among retirees and in major cities, while running even with Philippe among working voters. “What used to be her areas of weakness are no longer,” Sananes said.
Court ruling changed the race
Le Pen announced her candidacy on Tuesday after the Paris court of appeals reduced a ban that had kept her from standing for office. The court upheld her conviction for embezzling European Union funds, Bloomberg reported, but cut the election ban from five years to 15 months.
That shorter ban has already expired, allowing Le Pen to enter the race. The ruling also included a one-year jail term that judges said would not require prison time, though Bloomberg reported it would probably involve wearing an electronic tag for part of the sentence.
Le Pen has said she is appealing to France’s top court. Bloomberg reported that she has concluded she can still be elected president while pursuing that appeal.
The latest poll places Le Pen at the front of a still-developing race in which Macron cannot seek another term under France’s term limits. The survey does not decide the contest, but it shows the National Rally candidate starting the campaign period with a larger first-round advantage than earlier this year.
This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.