Florida tax cut proposal faces slower population growth

Florida lawmakers have put a property tax cut before voters at a time when the population growth that could help pay for it has slowed sharply. Census-based analysis by Florida State University demographers Matt Brooks and Karin Brewster found that net domestic migration to Florida fell to 22,000 people in 2025, down from an annual pandemic-era average of about 208,000.

Florida’s population still grew in 2025, Brooks and Brewster wrote in The Conversation, but at a 0.9% annual rate. That was well below the state’s 2.5% peak in 2022 and lower than growth rates in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tax plan relies on continued growth

The Florida Legislature approved a proposed constitutional amendment in early June 2026 that would expand the homestead property tax exemption for primary residences, excluding school taxes. If voters approve it in November, the exemption would rise to $150,000 in 2027, then to $250,000 in 2028, with inflation adjustments after that, according to the Legislature.

The exemption would reduce the taxable assessed value of homesteaded homes before local tax rates are applied. Brooks and Brewster wrote that supporters expect lower revenue from current homeowners to be offset by people moving into Florida and buying homes under the existing $50,000 exemption, which would rise after four years.

The demographers said that makes population growth a key budget assumption for state and local governments if the amendment passes. They also noted that the tax cut itself could draw some new residents, though their analysis focused on the recent slowdown already showing up in population data.

Migration and immigration slowed

Florida grew from 21.6 million residents in 2020 to 23.4 million in 2024, an 8.5% increase, according to Census Bureau figures. The state has long attracted newcomers with its climate, beaches, golf courses and lack of a state income tax, and the Census Bureau has reported that Florida often ranks among the fastest-growing states.

Brooks and Brewster used the Census Bureau’s components of change data, which tracks births, deaths, moves between states and international migration. They found three forces behind the slowdown: fewer people arriving from other states, more deaths than births each year since 2020, and a sharp drop in immigration from abroad in 2025.

The researchers said rising housing costs may be one factor limiting moves into Florida. They also pointed to expected increases in property insurance rates and severe weather risks as possible reasons some would-be residents are staying away.

Immigration had become the largest contributor to Florida’s growth since 2023, according to their analysis. Brooks and Brewster said the 2025 decline came during a year of new anti-immigration policies at both the national level and within Florida.

Growth patterns have shifted

The slowdown has not hit every county the same way. Brooks and Brewster wrote that Florida’s strongest growth after Gov. Ron DeSantis lifted remaining pandemic-era restrictions in 2021 was concentrated in retirement destinations.

Sumter County, home to The Villages, grew 7.4% in 2022, while Collier County, which includes Naples, grew 3.6%. By 2025, Sumter County’s growth rate had fallen to 2.3%, and Collier County grew by 0.1%, according to the demographers’ county-level estimates.

Other areas continued to expand. St. Johns County, in the Jacksonville metro area, led Florida counties with 3.9% growth in 2025. Brooks and Brewster described it as suburban, with many families with children and highly rated schools, suggesting growth tied more to families than retirees.

Marion County, which includes Ocala north of Orlando, was the only county in their analysis to grow faster in 2025 than in 2022. It grew 3.4% in 2025, and its median home value was about $275,000, compared with a statewide median of roughly $397,000, according to Census data cited by the researchers.

Florida officials are also responding to uneven population change in politics. The Legislature approved a new congressional map for 2026, and DeSantis has said the map was needed to address malapportionment and uneven migration since 2020.

Brooks and Brewster said Florida’s population is still rising, but its growth is no longer concentrated in the same places or powered by the same level of migration seen earlier in the decade. They said the slowdown will be closely watched by demographers and state officials as voters consider the tax proposal.

This story draws on original reporting from Fortune.